25 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

Molde vs Fredrikstad Eliteserien prediction & result

Aker Stadion, Molde
Referee: Ola Hobber Nilsen
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Molde 5-1 Fredrikstad.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Molde, 24% draw, 23% Fredrikstad — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Molde at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Molde99%Draw1%Fredrikstad0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Caleb Sery
2'
8'
⚽Bryan Fiabemaassist: Sondre Sørløkk
⚽Kristian Lonebuassist: Sander Hestetun Kilen
11'
⚽Kristian Lonebuassist: Mathias Lovik
17'
⚽Emil Breivikassist: Martin Linnes
35'
53'
Samuel Holm
59'
🔁Samuel Holmout: Benjamin Thoresen Faraas
59'
🔁Bryan Fiabemaout: Henrik Langaas Skogvold
⚽Kristian Lonebuassist: Sondre Granaas
60'
⚽Kristian Lonebuassist: Emil Breivik
63'
🔁Sander Hestetun Kilenout: Jalal Abdullai
64'
🔁Kristian Lonebuout: Oskar Spiten Nysaeter
64'
67'
🔁Solomon Owusuout: Ulrik Tillung Fredriksen
67'
🔁Gabriel Wessehout: Leonard Owusu
Martin Linnes
70'
🔁Sondre Granaasout: Niklas Ödegard
75'
🔁Daniel Dagaout: Mats Møller Dæhli
75'
🔁Fredrik Kristensen Dahlout: Birk Risa
78'
82'
🔁Liam Westout: Johannes Andres Hummelvoll-Nunez

Match stats — Molde vs Fredrikstad

62%Possession38%
19Shots14
10On target6
5Corners9
3.14xG2.03

Goals against chances

Molde5 from 3.14 xGmore than the chances were worth
Fredrikstad1 from 2.03 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Molde 4-2-3-1
  • 22A. PosiadałaG
  • 25M. LinnesD
  • 19E. HauganD
  • 27F. DahlD
  • 8M. LøvikD
  • 10E. BreivikM
  • 30D. DagaM
  • 11C. Zady SeryM
  • 23S. GranaasM
  • 16S. KilenM
  • 20K. LonebuF
Substitutes
  • 9J. AbdulaiF
  • 17M. Møller DæhliM
  • 26S. KabiniD
  • 24Trent Toure Kone DohertyF
  • 12P. LervikG
  • 6N. ØdegårdM
  • 33B. RisaD
  • 21O. Spiten-NysæterF
  • 50Ioan Alexandru SzambotiM
Coach: S. Tjelmeland
Fredrikstad 3-4-3
  • 77M. BørsheimG
  • 38I. AmundsenD
  • 4F. HolméD
  • 28S. OwusuD
  • 19F. GhebreyohannesM
  • 6S. Leach HolmM
  • 14M. NilssonM
  • 13S. SørløkkM
  • 29G. WessehF
  • 18B. FiabemaF
  • 11L. WestF
Substitutes
  • 30J. TorkildsenG
  • 23H. SkogvoldF
  • 5S. RafnD
  • 24L. OwusuM
  • 10J. Hummelvoll-NuñezF
  • 9S. LaghzaouiM
  • 21J. JezierskiM
  • 12U. FredriksenD
  • 7B. ThoresenF
Coach: Casper Röjkjaer

Form going into Molde vs Fredrikstad

Molde

Eliteserien

  • W6-1Start18 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Lillestrom11 October 2026

Fredrikstad

Eliteserien

  • L2-3away to Viking17 October 2026
  • D1-1Tromso11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Molde2613586444+2044
12Fredrikstad2686123146-1530

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Molde vs Fredrikstad

  • 13 September 2025Molde 1–2 FredrikstadEliteserien
  • 12 July 2025Fredrikstad 4–2 MoldeEliteserien
  • 7 December 2024Fredrikstad 0–0 MoldeNM Cupen
  • 14 September 2024Molde 6–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
  • 13 July 2024Fredrikstad 0–0 MoldeEliteserien

Leading scorers: Molde and Fredrikstad

Molde

GoalsAssists

  • K. Lonebu152
  • E. Breivik1010
  • E. Hestad82

Fredrikstad

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Molde beat Fredrikstad 5–1. The model had made a win for Molde its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Bryan Fiabema 8' for Fredrikstad, Kristian Lonebu 11' for Molde, Kristian Lonebu 17' for Molde, Emil Breivik 35' for Molde, Kristian Lonebu 60' for Molde, Kristian Lonebu 63' for Molde. On expected goals it finished 3.14–2.03.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fredrikstad a 3.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 2.6% after a draw, 4.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.0%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Molde v Fredrikstad has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 51% / 25% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 53% / 24% / 23%: the biggest move is Molde's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Molde win53%▲ +2
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. Fredrikstad win23%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.