Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Kristiansund BK 2-2 KFUM Oslo.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Kristiansund BK, 28% draw, 40% KFUM Oslo — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
KFUM Oslo at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12A. SætherG
- 59M. ElviusD
- 10H. BrusethD
- 5D. UlvestadD
- 17M. WilliamsenD
- 14S. SkeideM
- 25J. KitolanoM
- 16D. TufekcicM
- 7S. SvendsenM
- 11Z. BytyqiM
- 19L. AlvheimF
- 2A. BørsetD
- 24G. ChristensenF
- 3F. FlexD
- 22H. HaugenD
- 6J. IsaksenM
- 4J. JúlíussonD
- 1M. LansingG
- 27A. RønningF
- 23T. SvendsenM
- 1E. ØdegaardG
- 13B. SkaretD
- 5F. BerglieD
- 2D. SchneiderD
- 14H. HosethM
- 19E. SaunesM
- 9M. VinjorM
- 16J. HjorthM
- 11O. VistedF
- 22B. KristensenF
- 10B. NjieF
- 28M. GrødemF
- 25H. JensenG
- 7R. RaschM
- 24H. RøstenD
- 21S. SjøkvistD
- 27T. SøråsM
- 8B. TobiassenM
- 18R. VingeF
- 42D. HicksonF
Form going into Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo
Kristiansund BK
Eliteserien
- L1-4Aalesund17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Bodo/Glimt10 October 2026
KFUM Oslo
Eliteserien
- D1-1away to Tromso18 October 2026
- W2-1Valerenga12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 26 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo
- 2 August 2026KFUM Oslo 2–1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 19 October 2025KFUM Oslo 1–1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 26 July 2025Kristiansund BK 0–5 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 15 February 2025KFUM Oslo 0–0 Kristiansund BKFriendlies Clubs
- 23 November 2024KFUM Oslo 1–2 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 7 April 2024Kristiansund BK 1–1 KFUM OsloEliteserien
Leading scorers: Kristiansund BK and KFUM Oslo
Kristiansund BK
GoalsAssists
- L. Alvheim120
KFUM Oslo
GoalsAssists
- B. Njie83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kristiansund BK and KFUM Oslo drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for KFUM Oslo at 40% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Leander Alvheim 11' for Kristiansund BK, David Tufekcic 20' for Kristiansund BK, Bilal Njie 66' for KFUM Oslo, Robin Rasch (penalty) 70' for KFUM Oslo. Sent off: Dan Peter Ulvestad (Kristiansund BK) 90+4'. On expected goals it finished 3.29–2.11.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kristiansund BK a 91.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 84.5% after a win, 94.1% after a draw, 96.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 94.1%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.
For KFUM Oslo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 3.7% going in: under 1% after a win, 3.2% after a draw, 7.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 3.2%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Kristiansund BK v KFUM Oslo has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 32% / 28% / 40%: the biggest move is Kristiansund BK's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Kristiansund BK win32%▼ −4
- Draw28%=
- KFUM Oslo win40%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.