24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Sirius vs AIK Stockholm Allsvenskan prediction & result

Studenternas IP, Uppsala
Referee: Adam Ladeback
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Sirius 1-2 AIK Stockholm.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Sirius, 20% draw, 22% AIK Stockholm — fair odds of 1.72, 5.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sirius at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sirius0%Draw8%AIK Stockholm92%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

30'
⚽axel kouameassist: Abdihakin Ali
⚽Joakim Perssonassist: Marcus Lindberg
32'
35'
S. Wilson
45+2'
⚽Johan Hove (pen)
45'
🔁S. Wilsonout: Lukas Bergquist
🔁Ake Anderssonout: Otso Liimatta
55'
🔁Otso Liimattaout: N. Jönsson
59'
🔁Victor Svenssonout: Zalán Vancsa
59'
64'
🔁Sixten Gustafssonout: Linus Carlstrand
Mohamed Soumah
67'
72'
Eskil Smidesang Edh
76'
🔁Yannick Emilio Geigerout: Martin Ellingsen
76'
🔁Eskil Smidesang Edhout: Mads Thychosen
🔁Melker Heierout: Simon Sandberg
85'
88'
🔁Taha Ayariout: linus jareteg

Match stats — Sirius vs AIK Stockholm

54%Possession46%
23Shots11
4On target4
12Corners1
2.69xG1.65

Goals against chances

Sirius1 from 2.69 xGless than the chances were worth
AIK Stockholm2 from 1.65 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sirius 4-3-3
  • 34D. CelicG
  • 5H. CastegrenD
  • 2Mohamed SoumahD
  • 4T. AnkerD
  • 22O. KrusnellD
  • 24V. SvenssonM
  • 10M. HeierM
  • 6M. LindbergM
  • 7J. PerssonF
  • 29Ake AnderssonF
  • 11I. BjerkeboF
Substitutes
  • 1I. DiawaraG
  • 20V. EkströmD
  • 17N. JönssonF
  • 16O. LiimattaM
  • 21C. NildénM
  • 15S. SandbergD
  • 30Z. VancsaM
  • 18A. WikmanM
  • 25O. AdinduF
Coach: Andreas Engelmark
AIK Stockholm 4-3-3
  • 15K. NordfeldtG
  • 2E. EdhD
  • 33D. TomasD
  • 34W. OlofssonD
  • 21S. WilsonD
  • 45T. AyariM
  • 18A. AliM
  • 46Yannick GeigerM
  • 8J. HoveF
  • 16Sixten GustafssonF
  • 48A. KouameF
Substitutes
  • 14F. NissenD
  • 17M. ThychosenD
  • 30K. JoelssonG
  • 28L. JäretegM
  • 7A. MujanićM
  • 6M. EllingsenM
  • 9L. CarlstrandF
  • 5L. BergquistD
  • 10L. AssadiM
Coach: Jose Riveiro

Form going into Sirius vs AIK Stockholm

Sirius

Allsvenskan

  • D2-2IF Elfsborg18 October 2026

AIK Stockholm

Allsvenskan

  • D2-2IFK Goteborg17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Sirius2818465835+2358
8AIK Stockholm2811894649-341

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sirius vs AIK Stockholm

  • 30 May 2026AIK Stockholm 0–3 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 31 August 2025AIK Stockholm 2–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 19 June 2025AIK Stockholm 1–2 SiriusFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 June 2025Sirius 3–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 25 September 2024Sirius 0–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 11 May 2024AIK Stockholm 1–3 SiriusAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Sirius and AIK Stockholm

Sirius

GoalsAssists

  • I. Bjerkebo157
  • R. Ure152

AIK Stockholm

GoalsAssists

  • J. Hove113

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AIK Stockholm won 2–1 at Sirius. The model had leaned towards a win for Sirius at 58% and given a win for AIK Stockholm 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: axel kouame 30' for AIK Stockholm, Joakim Persson 32' for Sirius, Johan Hove (penalty) 45+2' for AIK Stockholm. On expected goals it finished 2.69–1.65.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sirius a 81.6% chance to finish top of the regular season: 88.0% after a win, 75.8% after a draw, 67.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.6%, 14 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sirius v AIK Stockholm has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 54% / 23% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 58% / 20% / 22%: the biggest move is Sirius's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Sirius win58%▲ +4
  2. Draw20%▼ −3
  3. AIK Stockholm win22%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.