17 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Bodrum FK vs Bandırmaspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Bodrum
Referee: Suleyman Bahadir
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Bodrum FK 2-1 Bandırmaspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Bodrum FK, 34% draw, 28% Bandırmaspor — fair odds of 2.63, 2.94 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bodrum FK at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bodrum FK98%Draw2%Bandırmaspor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Arlind Ajeti
44'
55'
•Yusuf Kocatürk
57'
⚽Tosin Kehindeassist: Enes Aydın
🔁Boran Baskanout: Florian Loshaj
64'
🔁Berkay Aslanout: Ruben Providence
64'
⚽Ege Bilselassist: Ruben Providence
68'
⚽Vincent Aboubakarassist: Ruben Providence
71'
73'
🔁Dean Licoout: Gianni Bruno
73'
🔁Recep Dilekout: Remi Mulumba
73'
🔁Emirhan Ayhanout: Enes Cinemre
73'
🔁Muhammed Gümüşkayaout: Dame Bamba Seck
80'
Lucas Lima
83'
🔁Kerem Dönertaşout: Muhammet Harun Genc
🔁Ege Bilselout: E. Arslan
87'
Vincent Aboubakar
89'
🔁Tomas Cruzout: Ismail Tarim
90+1'
🔁Vincent Aboubakarout: Mustafa Erdilman
90+2'
Yusuf Sertkaya
90+2'
90+2'
Remi Mulumba
E. Arslan
90+6'

Match stats — Bodrum FK vs Bandırmaspor

47%Possession53%
9Shots14
2On target3
4Corners3
0.76xG0.72

Goals against chances

Bodrum FK2 from 0.76 xGmore than the chances were worth
Bandırmaspor1 from 0.72 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bodrum FK 4-2-3-1
  • 1Diogo SousaG
  • 77B. YavuzayD
  • 5A. AjetiD
  • 4A. YılmazD
  • 23F. ApaydınD
  • 20Yusuf SertkayaM
  • 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
  • 11E. BilselM
  • 82B. BaşkanM
  • 19Berkay AslanM
  • 26V. AboubakarF
Substitutes
  • 8M. ErdilmanM
  • 27K. CengizerM
  • 17E. ArslanM
  • 30Elvir GashijaniF
  • 75E. KaplanD
  • 9Kerem KayaarasiF
  • 14F. LoshajM
  • 80R. ProvidenceF
  • 68I. TarimD
Coach: Burhan Eşer
Bandırmaspor 4-1-4-1
  • 16A. AlkanG
  • 22A. ÜlgenD
  • 14Y. KocatürkD
  • 34Enes AydınD
  • 6Lucas LimaD
  • 8D. LiçoM
  • 17Emirhan AyhanM
  • 23K. DonertasM
  • 10M. GümüşkayaM
  • 11T. KehindeM
  • 90Recep Yalın DilekF
Substitutes
  • 27Dame SeckF
  • 86B. BekaroğluD
  • 99F. BekleviçG
  • 3A. BilerD
  • 77H. BilgiçD
  • 9G. BrunoF
  • 7M. GençM
  • 19Yasin MidilicD
  • 92R. MulumbaM
Coach: Ertuğrul Arslan

Form going into Bodrum FK vs Bandırmaspor

Bodrum FK

1. Lig

  • W4-1away to Sarıyer13 October 2026

Bandırmaspor

1. Lig

  • D1-1Sivasspor13 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Bodrum FK145631813+521
15Bandırmaspor143561717014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bodrum FK vs Bandırmaspor

  • 11 April 2026Bodrum FK 0–0 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
  • 8 December 2025Bandırmaspor 2–0 Bodrum FK1. Lig
  • 9 March 2024Bandırmaspor 0–0 Bodrum FK1. Lig
  • 22 October 2023Bodrum FK 2–1 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
  • 29 March 2023Bandırmaspor 0–4 Bodrum FK1. Lig

Leading scorers: Bodrum FK and Bandırmaspor

Bodrum FK

GoalsAssists

  • V. Aboubakar50
  • E. Bilsel41

Bandırmaspor

GoalsAssists

  • G. Bruno50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bodrum FK beat Bandırmaspor 2–1. The model had made a win for Bodrum FK its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Tosin Kehinde 57' for Bandırmaspor, Ege Bilsel 68' for Bodrum FK, Vincent Aboubakar 71' for Bodrum FK. On expected goals it finished 0.76–0.72.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bodrum FK a 12.6% chance to finish in the top four: 16.0% after a win, 10.5% after a draw, 8.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.0%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

For Bandırmaspor the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 18.5% going in: 24.4% after a win, 17.4% after a draw, 13.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.9%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.