18 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

İstanbulspor vs Antalyaspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Istanbul
Referee: Burak Demirkiran
Full time0 – 2

Final score: İstanbulspor 0-2 Antalyaspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% İstanbulspor, 26% draw, 45% Antalyaspor — fair odds of 3.45, 3.85 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Antalyaspor at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

İstanbulspor0%Draw1%Antalyaspor99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
Omer Beyaz
24'
⚽Ahmet Sağat
25'
Ahmet Sağat
26'
Jesper Ceesay
Yusuf Ozer
29'
Emrecan Uzunhan
36'
🔁Ömer Faruk Duymazout: Aytaç Kara
64'
67'
⚽Sander van de Streekassist: Mevlüt Şimşek
69'
🔁Pedrinhoout: Erdoğan Yeşilyurt
69'
🔁Mevlüt Şimşekout: Soner Dikmen
🔁Mustafa Solout: Ali Akman
70'
🔁Ilian Ilievout: Mamadou Fall
70'
🔁Ozcan Sahanout: Berk Ali Nizam
74'
Aytaç Kara
80'
Elvin Mendy
81'
83'
🔁Sander van de Streekout: Samet Yalcin
83'
🔁Ahmet Sağatout: Ismail Taïeb Chehaima
90'
🔁Omer Beyazout: Veysel Sarı

Match stats — İstanbulspor vs Antalyaspor

39%Possession61%
10Shots13
4On target4
1Corners6
0.8xG2.31

Goals against chances

İstanbulspor0 from 0.80 xGless than the chances were worth
Antalyaspor2 from 2.31 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

İstanbulspor 4-4-2
  • 28A. TutarG
  • 20Ö. ŞahanD
  • 4D. SahinD
  • 89E. UzunhanD
  • 3Y. ÖzerD
  • 10I. IlievM
  • 21D. AydınM
  • 15E. MendyM
  • 30Alieu ChamM
  • 52Ö. DuymazF
  • 9M. SolF
Substitutes
  • 81A. AkmanF
  • 1I. DoganG
  • 27M. FallF
  • 34A. KaraM
  • 77M. KrstovskiF
  • 11B. NızamF
  • 5M. OlogoD
  • 61E. SarıalioğluM
  • 12K. SönmezM
Coach: Olcay Demir
Antalyaspor 4-1-4-1
  • 77F. PseftisG
  • 7B. BalcıD
  • 4Bugra Tivsiz EnsarD
  • 15F. NzabaD
  • 19S. KarakoçD
  • 35J. CeesayM
  • 97M. ŞimşekM
  • 14PedrinhoM
  • 22S. van de StreekM
  • 5Ö. BeyazM
  • 23A. SağatF
Substitutes
  • 20Hasan Yakub İlçinM
  • 21A. YiğiterG
  • 17E. YeşilyurtM
  • 18S. YalçınM
  • 89V. SarıD
  • 43A. KocamanD
  • 6S. DikmenM
  • 44Ismail ChehaimaM
  • 99K. ArıcanG
Coach: O. Özköylü

Form going into İstanbulspor vs Antalyaspor

İstanbulspor

1. Lig

  • L2-4away to Batman Petrolspor14 October 2026

Antalyaspor

1. Lig

  • L0-4Kayserispor14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19İstanbulspor1422101233-218
8Antalyaspor146262021-120

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: İstanbulspor vs Antalyaspor

  • 17 February 2024Antalyaspor 2–2 İstanbulsporSüper Lig
  • 30 September 2023İstanbulspor 1–2 AntalyasporSüper Lig
  • 3 August 2023İstanbulspor 1–1 AntalyasporFriendlies Clubs
  • 19 April 2023İstanbulspor 3–3 AntalyasporSüper Lig
  • 21 October 2022Antalyaspor 2–1 İstanbulsporSüper Lig

Leading scorers: İstanbulspor and Antalyaspor

İstanbulspor

GoalsAssists

  • Alieu Cham41

Antalyaspor

GoalsAssists

  • S. van de Streek42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Antalyaspor won 2–0 at İstanbulspor. The model had made a win for Antalyaspor its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ahmet Sağat 24' for Antalyaspor, Sander van de Streek 67' for Antalyaspor. Sent off: Aytaç Kara (İstanbulspor) 80'. On expected goals it finished 0.80–2.31.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave İstanbulspor a 54.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 46.8% after a win, 55.2% after a draw, 58.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.2%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.

For Antalyaspor the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 22.3% going in: 26.0% after a win, 19.8% after a draw, 17.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.0%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on İstanbulspor v Antalyaspor has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 31% / 28% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 29% / 26% / 45%: the biggest move is Antalyaspor's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. İstanbulspor win29%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Antalyaspor win45%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.