Sivasspor vs Sarıyer 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Sivasspor 1-1 Sarıyer.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Sivasspor, 29% draw, 25% Sarıyer — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sivasspor at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sivasspor vs Sarıyer
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16Arda ErdusunG
- 26M. YıldırımD
- 4M. ÇelikD
- 34T. TuzlacikD
- 77Y. KefkirD
- 66Oguzhan AksoyM
- 20M. MohammedM
- 30E. CeesayM
- 28S. KavrazlıM
- 27V. EthemiM
- 9R. ManajF
- 90M. AlbayrakD
- 1G. BakırbaşG
- 91Osman BaşkuyuD
- 8C. CharisisM
- 99Yilmaz CinF
- 17C. DuoduF
- 19E. GökayF
- 11B. KapacakM
- 43Eymen YurdcuM
- 13I. ŠehićG
- 23Ü. ErgünD
- 24K. ArslanD
- 88C. OsmanpaşaD
- 5E. KorkmazoğluD
- 28H. YeşilyurtM
- 7B. AliciM
- 53A. Biyogo PokoM
- 17D. DavasM
- 10E. KaracaM
- 90E. EzeF
- 27M. YücelM
- 19Yagiz SenM
- 4E. DikmenD
- 3J. AttamahD
- 1F. AkyüzG
- 14T. ErgülM
- 41F. GedikF
- 11E. KaradağF
- 9B. KörF
Form going into Sivasspor vs Sarıyer
Sivasspor
1. Lig
- D1-1away to Bandırmaspor13 October 2026
Sarıyer
1. Lig
- L1-4Bodrum FK13 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Sivasspor | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
| 13 | Sarıyer | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sivasspor vs Sarıyer
- 7 February 2026Sarıyer 1–0 Sivasspor1. Lig
- 13 September 2025Sivasspor 1–0 Sarıyer1. Lig
Leading scorers: Sivasspor and Sarıyer
Sivasspor
GoalsAssists
- R. Manaj102
Sarıyer
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sivasspor and Sarıyer drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sivasspor at 46% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: André Poko 1' for Sarıyer, Rey Manaj 30' for Sivasspor. On expected goals it finished 1.69–1.78.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sivasspor a 5.6% chance to finish in the top four: 6.9% after a win, 4.4% after a draw, 3.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.4%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.
For Sarıyer the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 6.6% going in: 4.1% after a win, 5.8% after a draw, 7.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 5.8%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sivasspor v Sarıyer has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 37% / 32% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Sivasspor's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Sivasspor win46%▲ +9
- Draw29%▼ −3
- Sarıyer win25%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.