18 October 2026, 10:30 UTC

Iğdır FK vs Boluspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Aktepe Stadium, Ankara
Referee: Oguzhan Gokcen
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Iğdır FK 1-0 Boluspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 63% Iğdır FK, 23% draw, 14% Boluspor — fair odds of 1.59, 4.35 and 7.14.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Iğdır FK at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Iğdır FK98%Draw2%Boluspor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Arda Çolak
6'
Giovanni Crociata
19'
🔁Loic Kouagbaout: Alperen Selvi
22'
28'
Canberk Ozdemir
38'
B. Göçmen
🔁Arda Çolakout: Ozder Ozcan
45'
57'
🔁Ege Özkayimogluout: Bertu Ozyurek
57'
🔁Nurettin Korkmazout: Furkan Metin
🔁Moustapha Camaraout: Felix Ohene Afena-Gyan
66'
🔁Serdar Gürlerout: Leandro Bacuna
66'
⚽Leandro Bacuna
72'
Dogan Erdogan
78'
78'
🔁Ahmet Can Özdemirout: Can Arda Yılmaz
79'
🔁Muhammed Mertout: Abdulsamet Kırım
🔁Gökcan Kayaout: Leon Çalışkan
90+1'
90+2'
🔁Zeki Dursunout: Ali Uğurhan Uğurlu

Match stats — Iğdır FK vs Boluspor

54%Possession46%
13Shots8
2On target2
4Corners2
1.19xG0.63

Goals against chances

Iğdır FK1 from 1.19 xGabout what the chances were worth
Boluspor0 from 0.63 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Iğdır FK 4-4-2
  • 29J. SzumskiG
  • 39H. KarabeyD
  • 5A. ÖztürkD
  • 18L. KouagbaD
  • 28S. GönülD
  • 7M. CamaraM
  • 21D. ErdoğanM
  • 24G. CrociataM
  • 17S. GürlerM
  • 58G. KayaF
  • 9A. ÇolakF
Substitutes
  • 61S. AsanD
  • 10L. BacunaM
  • 22A. SelviD
  • 1T. TepeG
  • 11Malik YilmazF
  • 99Douglas TanqueF
  • 44L. CaliskanM
  • 19Ö. ÖzcanF
  • 6D. ŞenyurtM
Coach: K. Kocak
Boluspor 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. TafasG
  • 64Ahmet OzdemirD
  • 50B. GöçmenD
  • 3K. CuestaD
  • 54C. ÖzdemirD
  • 8T. ArtuçM
  • 77N. KorkmazM
  • 23Z. DursunM
  • 21M. MertM
  • 35E. ÖzkayımoğluM
  • 9R. RivasF
Substitutes
  • 19J. DiazM
  • 2F. MetinD
  • 14A. KırımD
  • 22Arda Tuğra SaygıD
  • 27Ali Uğurhan UğurluD
  • 32E. YunuszadəD
  • 6C. YilmazM
  • 25M. ÖzkanG
  • 67B. ÖzyürekM
Coach: Mustapha Yatabaré

Form going into Iğdır FK vs Boluspor

Iğdır FK

1. Lig

  • D0-0away to Keçiörengücü14 October 2026

Boluspor

1. Lig

  • L0-1Antalyaspor10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Iğdır FK148421911+828
20Boluspor131111628-224

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Iğdır FK vs Boluspor

  • 8 March 2026Boluspor 2–0 Iğdır FK1. Lig
  • 19 October 2025Iğdır FK 1–1 Boluspor1. Lig
  • 19 January 2025Iğdır FK 0–1 Boluspor1. Lig
  • 11 August 2024Boluspor 0–1 Iğdır FK1. Lig

The result against the call

Iğdır FK beat Boluspor 1–0. The model had made a win for Iğdır FK its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Leandro Bacuna 72' for Iğdır FK. On expected goals it finished 1.19–0.63.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Iğdır FK a 32.8% chance to finish in the top four: 34.7% after a win, 28.5% after a draw, 24.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.7%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

For Boluspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 94.4% going in: 91.2% after a win, 94.1% after a draw, 95.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 95.2%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Iğdır FK v Boluspor has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 56% / 25% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 63% / 23% / 14%: the biggest move is Iğdır FK's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Iğdır FK win63%▲ +7
  2. Draw23%▼ −2
  3. Boluspor win14%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.