18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Kayserispor vs Batman Petrolspor 1. Lig prediction & result

RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayseri
Referee: Asen Albayrak
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Kayserispor 2-2 Batman Petrolspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Kayserispor, 24% draw, 25% Batman Petrolspor — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kayserispor at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kayserispor6%Draw91%Batman Petrolspor3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Sami Gokhan Altiparmakassist: Jin-ho Jo
10'
Bernardo Sousa
45'
🔁Buğra Çağıranout: Yasir Subaşı
🔁Ensar Kemalogluout: Florent Hasani
45'
🔁Mert Göckanout: Murat Cem Akpinar
62'
•Florent Hasani
68'
⚽Florent Hasani (pen)
71'
75'
🔁Omurcan Artanout: Pedrinho
⚽Florent Hasaniassist: Daniel Moreno
82'
🔁Benhur Keserout: Oğulcan Çağlayan
85'
🔁Mehmet Murat Uçarout: Kayra Cihan
85'
86'
🔁Mamadou Cissokhoout: Oğuz Gürbulak
86'
🔁Bernardo Sousaout: David Kaiki Flores da Silva
87'
⚽Yasir Subaşı
90+2'
Jin-ho Jo
90+6'
🔁Jin-ho Joout: Emirhan Aydogan
Sinan Kurt
90+8'

Match stats — Kayserispor vs Batman Petrolspor

74%Possession26%
21Shots7
9On target3
7Corners2
2.98xG1.34

Goals against chances

Kayserispor2 from 2.98 xGless than the chances were worth
Batman Petrolspor2 from 1.34 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kayserispor 4-2-3-1
  • 35G. DeğirmenciG
  • 7M. UçarD
  • 4S. GülerD
  • 3J. TabidzeD
  • 17M. GöçkanD
  • 8S. KurtM
  • 11E. KemaloğluM
  • 10B. KeserM
  • 61G. SağlamM
  • 97T. SeferiM
  • 27D. MorenoF
Substitutes
  • 18F. ÖzerD
  • 88M. DulcaM
  • 5K. CihanD
  • 20J. BrenetD
  • 6C. AkpınarM
  • 16Deniz Eren DonmezerG
  • 9F. HasaniF
  • 38Ataol KarapinarM
  • 99T. SarıarslanF
Coach: A. Gerin
Batman Petrolspor 5-4-1
  • 13B. TetikG
  • 72P. YaldırD
  • 27Ö. ArtanD
  • 4M. MertD
  • 21DóriaD
  • 77BennyD
  • 7M. BironM
  • 34M. CissokhoM
  • 6Jo Jin-HoM
  • 26B. ÇağıranM
  • 79G. AltıparmakF
Substitutes
  • 5E. AydoğanM
  • 46Devran BozardicD
  • 15DavidF
  • 8O. GürbulakM
  • 11O. ImeriF
  • 17G. KaradenizM
  • 10PedrinhoF
  • 3Y. SubaşıD
  • 18Karan TopdemirF
Coach: Selçuk Şahin

Form going into Kayserispor vs Batman Petrolspor

Kayserispor

1. Lig

  • W4-0away to Antalyaspor14 October 2026

Batman Petrolspor

1. Lig

  • W4-2İstanbulspor14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Kayserispor149323311+2230
5Batman Petrolspor147342724+324

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Kayserispor and Batman Petrolspor

Kayserispor

GoalsAssists

  • T. Seferi102
  • D. Moreno101
  • F. Hasani50

Batman Petrolspor

GoalsAssists

  • Pedrinho50
  • M. Biron42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Kayserispor and Batman Petrolspor drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Kayserispor at 51% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Sami Gokhan Altiparmak 2' for Batman Petrolspor, Florent Hasani (penalty) 71' for Kayserispor, Florent Hasani 82' for Kayserispor, Yasir Subaşı 87' for Batman Petrolspor. On expected goals it finished 2.98–1.34.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kayserispor a 68.8% chance to finish in the top four: 73.1% after a win, 65.9% after a draw, 62.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 65.9%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.

For Batman Petrolspor the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 20.9% going in: 27.2% after a win, 20.3% after a draw, 17.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 20.3%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Kayserispor v Batman Petrolspor has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 51% / 24% / 25%: the biggest move is Kayserispor's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Kayserispor win51%▲ +5
  2. Draw24%▼ −3
  3. Batman Petrolspor win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.