16 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Bohemians vs Waterford Premier Division prediction & result

Dalymount Park, Dublin
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Bohemians 2-1 Waterford.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Bohemians, 25% draw, 24% Waterford — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bohemians at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bohemians96%Draw4%Waterford0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Sam Toddassist: Jordan Flores
12'
38'
⚽Padraig Amondassist: Bernardo Piexoto Couto
cian byrne
48'
49'
⚽Tom Lonergan (pen)
⚽Ryan Burkeassist: Sadou Diallo
64'
🔁Sadou Dialloout: Niall Morahan
74'
🔁James Taylorout: Colm Whelan
74'
🔁Harry Patrick Vaughanout: Markuss Strods
74'
Niall Morahan
75'
🔁Ryan Burkeout: Patrick Hickey
78'
79'
🔁Noah Maweneout: Jørgen Voilås
79'
🔁Luke Heeneyout: Evan McLaughlin
86'
🔁Jordan Houstonout: Dean Mcmenamy
🔁Connor Parsonsout: Dayle Rooney
90+3'

Match stats — Bohemians vs Waterford

62%Possession38%
10Shots9
6On target4
3Corners4
0.56xG1.28

Goals against chances

Bohemians2 from 0.56 xGmore than the chances were worth
Waterford1 from 1.28 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bohemians 4-2-3-1
  • 25P. WaltersG
  • 16D. PowerD
  • 24C. ByrneD
  • 22S. ToddD
  • 3R. BurkeD
  • 5S. DialloM
  • 6J. FloresM
  • 26R. TierneyM
  • 8H. VaughanM
  • 7C. ParsonsM
  • 18D. James-TaylorF
Substitutes
  • 9C. WhelanF
  • 12P. HickeyD
  • 1K. ChorążkaG
  • 21Josh AdamM
  • 41P. MaddenF
  • 4N. MorahanM
  • 23Zane MyersD
  • 11D. RooneyF
  • 32M. StrodsM
Coach: A. Reynolds
Waterford 3-4-1-2
  • 1S. McMullanG
  • 16H. CannD
  • 5J. MahonD
  • 13K. LongD
  • 2J. HoustonM
  • 15L. HeeneyM
  • 7N. MaweneM
  • 3Benny CoutoM
  • 10C. NoonanM
  • 9P. AmondF
  • 18T. LonerganF
Substitutes
  • 6J. AshtonD
  • 56A. BrennanD
  • 11T. CoyleF
  • 21Arlo Ricky Hugh DohertyG
  • 17J. FariaM
  • 8E. McLaughlinM
  • 27D. McMenamyM
  • 32G. AmeduD
  • 20J. VoilåsF
Coach: G. Coughlan

Form going into Bohemians vs Waterford

Bohemians

Premier Division

  • L1-2away to Shamrock Rovers12 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Dundalk2 October 2026

Waterford

Premier Division

  • L2-3away to Shamrock Rovers18 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Bohemians3619896344+1965
7Waterford361013135461-743

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bohemians vs Waterford

  • 9 October 2026Bohemians 0–2 WaterfordFAI Cup
  • 9 August 2026Waterford 3–1 BohemiansPremier Division
  • 6 April 2026Bohemians 1–1 WaterfordPremier Division
  • 6 March 2026Waterford 0–1 BohemiansPremier Division
  • 30 January 2026Waterford 1–4 BohemiansFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Bohemians and Waterford

Bohemians

GoalsAssists

  • C. Whelan136
  • R. Tierney113

Waterford

GoalsAssists

  • T. Lonergan167
  • P. Amond141

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bohemians beat Waterford 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Bohemians at 51%. The goals: Sam Todd 12' for Bohemians, Padraig Amond 38' for Waterford, Ryan Burke 64' for Bohemians. On expected goals it finished 0.56–1.28.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Waterford a 71.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 50.8% after a win, 69.2% after a draw, 80.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.4%, 9.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bohemians v Waterford has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 51% / 25% / 24%: the biggest move is Bohemians's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Bohemians win51%▲ +4
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Waterford win24%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.