16 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

St Patrick's Athletic vs Shelbourne Premier Division prediction & result

Richmond Park, Dublin
Full time1 – 2

Final score: St Patrick's Athletic 1-2 Shelbourne.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% St Patrick's Athletic, 29% draw, 20% Shelbourne — fair odds of 1.96, 3.45 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St Patrick's Athletic at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St Patrick's Athletic0%Draw5%Shelbourne95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Aidan Keena (pen)
15'
⚽Jamie Lennonassist: Barry Baggley
43'
49'
⚽Sean Mooreassist: Daniel Kelly
🔁Kian Leavyout: Ryan Sheridan
62'
66'
🔁Ademipo Odubekoout: John Martin
66'
🔁Marco Untergrabnerout: Jonathan Lunney
71'
🔁James Norrisout: Sam Bone
72'
🔁Jack Henry-Francisout: Alistair Coote
🔁Barry Baggleyout: Christopher Forrester
72'
🔁Anthony Olusanyaout: Ryan Edmondson
72'
Jason McClelland
80'
81'
Daniel Kelly
🔁Aidan Keenaout: Romal Palmer
83'
🔁Jason McClellandout: James Brown
83'
84'
⚽Daniel Kelly
88'
🔁Sean Mooreout: Sean Boyd
90'
Alistair Coote
90+4'
Eddie Beach

Match stats — St Patrick's Athletic vs Shelbourne

62%Possession38%
24Shots10
5On target2
12Corners3
2.57xG0.55

Goals against chances

St Patrick's Athletic1 from 2.57 xGless than the chances were worth
Shelbourne2 from 0.55 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St Patrick's Athletic 3-4-3
  • 94J. AnangG
  • 4J. RedmondD
  • 2S. HoareD
  • 24L. TurnerD
  • 7Z. ElbouzediM
  • 6J. LennonM
  • 19B. BaggleyM
  • 11J. McClellandM
  • 10K. LeavyF
  • 21A. OlusanyaF
  • 9A. KeenaF
Substitutes
  • 3A. BreslinD
  • 23J. BrownD
  • 27R. EdmondsonF
  • 8C. ForresterM
  • 33S. McHaleD
  • 16D. NugentM
  • 17R. PalmerM
  • 1D. RogersG
  • 48R. SheridanM
Coach: S. Kenny
Shelbourne 5-4-1
  • 19E. BeachG
  • 17D. KellyD
  • 24M. UntergrabnerD
  • 16O. CaseyD
  • 4K. LedwidgeD
  • 18James Barry NorrisD
  • 22S. MooreM
  • 21Jack Henry-FrancisM
  • 23K. McInroyM
  • 27E. CaffreyM
  • 11M. OdubekoF
Substitutes
  • 55James RocheD
  • 10J. MartinF
  • 6J. LunneyM
  • 36W. JarvisM
  • 2S. GannonD
  • 14A. CooteM
  • 9S. BoydF
  • 15S. BoneD
  • 31C. WalshG
Coach: J. Russell

Form going into St Patrick's Athletic vs Shelbourne

St Patrick's Athletic

Premier Division

  • W1-0away to Sligo Rovers19 September 2026

Shelbourne

Premier Division

  • W5-1Sligo Rovers9 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Galway United25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3St Patrick's Athletic36179105531+2460
4Shelbourne361213115250+249

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St Patrick's Athletic vs Shelbourne

  • 9 August 2026Shelbourne 1–2 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
  • 15 May 2026St Patrick's Athletic 0–1 ShelbournePremier Division
  • 6 March 2026Shelbourne 2–3 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
  • 1 November 2025Shelbourne 0–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
  • 17 August 2025St Patrick's Athletic 2–0 ShelbourneFAI Cup

Leading scorers: St Patrick's Athletic and Shelbourne

St Patrick's Athletic

GoalsAssists

  • A. Keena105
  • R. Edmondson101
  • K. Leavy73

Shelbourne

GoalsAssists

  • H. Wood85
  • D. Kelly84
  • J. Martin82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Shelbourne won 2–1 at St Patrick's Athletic. The model had leaned towards a win for St Patrick's Athletic at 51% and given a win for Shelbourne 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Jamie Lennon 43' for St Patrick's Athletic, Sean Moore 49' for Shelbourne, Daniel Kelly 84' for Shelbourne. Sent off: Alistair Coote (Shelbourne) 90'. On expected goals it finished 2.57–0.55.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave St Patrick's Athletic these chances to finish top of the regular season: 14.7% after a win, 4.7% after a draw, 1.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 1.9%.

For Shelbourne the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 25.5% going in: 50.5% after a win, 26.9% after a draw, 16.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.5%, 25 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on St Patrick's Athletic v Shelbourne has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 47% / 31% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 51% / 29% / 20%: the biggest move is St Patrick's Athletic's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. St Patrick's Athletic win51%▲ +4
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Shelbourne win20%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.