17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk Premier Division prediction & result

Showgrounds, Sligo
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sligo Rovers 1-1 Dundalk.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Sligo Rovers, 28% draw, 42% Dundalk — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dundalk at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sligo Rovers95%Draw5%Dundalk0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
Tyreke Wilson
25'
🔁Mayowa Animasahunout: Egor Vassenin
🔁A. Gabbidonout: Seb Quirk
45'
⚽Kaiyne Wooleryassist: sean stewart
46'
Luke Young
57'
sean stewart
59'
62'
🔁Aodh Dervinout: shane tracey
62'
🔁Trevor Clarkeout: Declan McDaid
🔁Daire Pattonout: James McManus
67'
🔁Kaiyne Wooleryout: Luke Pearce
70'
73'
🔁Cian dillonout: leonardo gaxha
74'
🔁Keith Buckleyout: Harry Groome
90'
⚽ronan teahanassist: Declan McDaid

Match stats — Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk

44%Possession56%
5Shots23
2On target9
1Corners13
0.36xG1.73

Goals against chances

Sligo Rovers1 from 0.36 xGmore than the chances were worth
Dundalk1 from 1.73 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sligo Rovers 4-2-3-1
  • 1Liam John HughesG
  • 51Aidan GabbidonD
  • 15O. DenhamD
  • 52G. McElroyD
  • 3Sean StewartD
  • 6L. YoungM
  • 71D. PattonM
  • 41K. WooleryM
  • 10A. MeekisonM
  • 7J. ShorrockM
  • 11C. KavanaghF
Substitutes
  • 23K. McDonaghM
  • 14J. McManusM
  • 9L. PearceF
  • 4S. QuirkM
  • 48Ross Ruane-DaltonF
  • 50Ruben GillespieM
  • 61Conor CannonD
  • 77Kevin ZefiF
  • 60R. BrushG
Coach: D. Purse
Dundalk 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. MinogueG
  • 3B. BurnsD
  • 4M. AnimasahunD
  • 44T. GrivostiD
  • 22T. WilsonD
  • 18K. BuckleyM
  • 6A. DervinM
  • 15T. ClarkeM
  • 11R. TeahanM
  • 7D. HorganM
  • 9C. DillonF
Substitutes
  • 17S. TraceyM
  • 16E. VasseninD
  • 5H. WarrenD
  • 20S. SafaeiG
  • 12L. MulliganD
  • 27D. McDaidM
  • 8H. GroomeM
  • 10Leonardo GaxhaF
  • 14Norman GarbettM
Coach: C. Kilduff

Form going into Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk

Sligo Rovers

Premier Division

  • L1-5away to Shelbourne9 October 2026
  • L0-1St Patrick's Athletic19 September 2026

Dundalk

Premier Division

  • L1-2Bohemians2 October 2026
  • L2-3Shelbourne18 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Sligo Rovers36510212866-3825
6Dundalk361112135559-445

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk

  • 31 July 2026Dundalk 1–1 Sligo RoversPremier Division
  • 25 April 2026Sligo Rovers 2–0 DundalkPremier Division
  • 16 March 2026Dundalk 1–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division
  • 18 July 2025Dundalk 0–2 Sligo RoversFAI Cup
  • 21 September 2024Sligo Rovers 2–1 DundalkPremier Division
  • 13 June 2024Dundalk 1–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division

Leading scorers: Sligo Rovers and Dundalk

Sligo Rovers

No player in Premier Division's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.

Dundalk

GoalsAssists

  • D. Horgan1210
  • G. Arubi73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sligo Rovers and Dundalk drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Dundalk at 42% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kaiyne Woolery 46' for Sligo Rovers, ronan teahan 90' for Dundalk. On expected goals it finished 0.36–1.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dundalk a 4.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 0.0% after a win, 4.4% after a draw, 10.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 4.4%.

Read from our Premier Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sligo Rovers v Dundalk has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 32% / 29% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 30% / 28% / 42%: the biggest move is Dundalk's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Sligo Rovers win30%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Dundalk win42%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.