16 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Drogheda United vs Derry City Premier Division prediction & result

Weavers Park, Drogheda
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Drogheda United 2-0 Derry City.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Drogheda United, 29% draw, 40% Derry City — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Derry City at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Drogheda United99%Draw1%Derry City0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Brandon Kavanagh
7'
23'
nick twisk
Edwin Agbaje
62'
Thomas Oluwa
62'
63'
🔁Kévin Santosout: Darragh Burns
63'
🔁Tyler·Smithout: James Clarke
🔁Thomas Oluwaout: Mark Doyle
69'
🔁Brandon Kavanaghout: Alfie Bates
69'
75'
🔁Conor Barryout: Gavin Whyte
🔁Shane Farrellout: Jago Godden
77'
79'
Jamie Stott
⚽Mark Doyle
83'
🔁Warren Davisout: Keegan Ancelin
87'
Jago Godden
90+2'

Match stats — Drogheda United vs Derry City

21%Possession79%
4Shots30
2On target5
4Corners11
0.92xG1.35

Goals against chances

Drogheda United2 from 0.92 xGmore than the chances were worth
Derry City0 from 1.35 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Drogheda United 3-4-2-1
  • 44Fynn Michael Cordell TalleyG
  • 4A. QuinnD
  • 22C. KeeleyD
  • 5Leo BurneyD
  • 2E. AgbajeM
  • 8Ethan O'BrienM
  • 17S. FarrellM
  • 3C. KaneM
  • 10B. KavanaghM
  • 24W. DavisM
  • 11T. OluwaF
Substitutes
  • 15A. BatesM
  • 9K. AncelinF
  • 18J. BolgerD
  • 31K. CruiseD
  • 14M. DoyleF
  • 6J. GoddenM
  • 36theo hennessyG
  • 32D. MareD
  • 25R. MarkeyF
Coach: K. Doherty
Derry City 4-3-3
  • 13Tom NorcottG
  • 23C. DummiganD
  • 4J. StottD
  • 3Patrick McCleanD
  • 19B. FlemingD
  • 22C. BarrM
  • 17N. TwiskM
  • 14E. ChapmanM
  • 21Kévin SantosF
  • 29T. SmithF
  • 7M. DuffyF
Substitutes
  • 11G. WhyteM
  • 15J. ClarkeM
  • 32T. DohertyF
  • 25Christy GroganD
  • 24Brooklyn Lyons-FosterD
  • 1B. MaherG
  • 10D. MarkeyM
  • 12D. BurnsM
  • 34C. O'DonnellM
Coach: Mark Connolly

Form going into Drogheda United vs Derry City

Drogheda United

Premier Division

  • L1-3away to Shamrock Rovers8 October 2026

Derry City

Premier Division

  • W1-0Galway United18 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Drogheda United361010164457-1340
5Derry City361115105047+348

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Drogheda United vs Derry City

  • 26 June 2026Derry City 2–0 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
  • 8 May 2026Drogheda United 1–0 Derry CityPremier Division
  • 20 March 2026Derry City 2–2 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
  • 26 September 2025Drogheda United 1–1 Derry CityPremier Division
  • 16 August 2025Derry City 1–1 Drogheda UnitedFAI Cup

Leading scorers: Drogheda United and Derry City

Drogheda United

GoalsAssists

  • M. Doyle111
  • B. Kavanagh65

Derry City

GoalsAssists

  • M. Duffy115
  • J. Clarke73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Drogheda United beat Derry City 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Derry City at 40% and given a win for Drogheda United 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Brandon Kavanagh 7' for Drogheda United, Mark Doyle 83' for Drogheda United. On expected goals it finished 0.92–1.35.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Drogheda United a 93.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 85.8% after a win, 95.8% after a draw, 97.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 85.8%, 7.5 points lower than before the match.

For Derry City the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 62.0% going in: 78.2% after a win, 54.5% after a draw, 44.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.9%, 17.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Drogheda United v Derry City has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 32% / 30% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 31% / 29% / 40%: the biggest move is Derry City's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Drogheda United win31%▼ −1
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Derry City win40%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.