16 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers Premier Division prediction & result

Eamonn Deacy Park, Galway
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Galway United 2-0 Shamrock Rovers.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Galway United, 29% draw, 43% Shamrock Rovers — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shamrock Rovers at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Galway United99%Draw1%Shamrock Rovers0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jimmy Keohane
2'
15'
Matthew Healy
⚽Aaron Bolger
42'
45'
🔁Jake Mulraneyout: Jonathan Afolabi
45'
🔁Matthew Healyout: Adam Brennan
66'
🔁John O'Reilly-O'Sullivanout: William Fitzgerald
68'
John McGovern
77'
🔁Daniel Clearyout: Daniel Grant
🔁Ed McCarthyout: Matthew Wolfe
82'
89'
Tunmise Sobowale
🔁Stephen Walshout: Dylan Connolly
89'

Match stats — Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers

18%Possession82%
6Shots19
4On target5
2Corners9
0.52xG1.93

Goals against chances

Galway United2 from 0.52 xGmore than the chances were worth
Shamrock Rovers0 from 1.93 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Galway United 3-5-2
  • 16Hugo Alberto Pires da CunhaG
  • 3Connor BarrattD
  • 2A. O'ConnorD
  • 12Gianfranco FacchineriD
  • 4J. KeohaneM
  • 8A. BolgerM
  • 20L. DevittM
  • 10D. HurleyM
  • 24E. McCarthyM
  • 11K. TwardekF
  • 7S. WalshF
Substitutes
  • 15O. WilliamsD
  • 32Vincent AngeliniG
  • 21D. ConnollyF
  • 9F. LombotoF
  • 23F. PierrotF
  • 17Junior ThiamM
  • 14M. WolfeM
  • 54C. WhittakerM
  • 28J. MorahanD
Coach: John Caulfield
Shamrock Rovers 3-1-4-2
  • 1E. McGintyG
  • 6D. ClearyD
  • 4PicoD
  • 5L. GraceD
  • 8M. HealyM
  • 22T. SobowaleM
  • 7D. WattsM
  • 29J. ByrneM
  • 11J. MulraneyM
  • 88J. McGovernF
  • 10G. BurkeF
Substitutes
  • 9A. GreeneF
  • 17L. O'ReganM
  • 27C. O'SullivanD
  • 26John O'SullivanM
  • 25L. SteacyG
  • 21D. GrantM
  • 19A. BrennanM
  • 18J. AfolabiF
  • 24W. FitzgeraldF
Coach: S. Bradley

Form going into Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers

Galway United

Premier Division

  • D1-1Shelbourne25 September 2026

Shamrock Rovers

Premier Division

  • W2-1Bohemians12 October 2026
  • W3-1Drogheda United8 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Galway United361012144653-742
1Shamrock Rovers3620885938+2168

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers

  • 26 June 2026Shamrock Rovers 3–1 Galway UnitedPremier Division
  • 8 May 2026Galway United 1–3 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
  • 20 March 2026Shamrock Rovers 2–0 Galway UnitedPremier Division
  • 29 October 2025Shamrock Rovers 1–0 Galway UnitedPremier Division
  • 10 August 2025Galway United 0–0 Shamrock RoversPremier Division

Leading scorers: Galway United and Shamrock Rovers

Galway United

GoalsAssists

  • K. Twardek86
  • J. Keohane73

Shamrock Rovers

GoalsAssists

  • J. McGovern107
  • G. Burke84

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Galway United beat Shamrock Rovers 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Shamrock Rovers at 43% and given a win for Galway United 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jimmy Keohane 2' for Galway United, Aaron Bolger 42' for Galway United. On expected goals it finished 0.52–1.93.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Galway United a 30.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 10.4% after a win, 29.9% after a draw, 41.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.4%, 20.2 points lower than before the match.

For Shamrock Rovers the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 88.8% going in: 96.3% after a win, 88.0% after a draw, 76.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.8%, 12 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Galway United v Shamrock Rovers has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 30% / 30% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 28% / 29% / 43%: the biggest move is Shamrock Rovers's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Galway United win28%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Shamrock Rovers win43%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.