19 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü 1. Lig prediction & result

Yusuf Ziya Onis, Istanbul
Referee: Muhammetali Metoglu
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 Keçiörengücü.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Fatih Karagümrük, 28% draw, 30% Keçiörengücü — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fatih Karagümrük at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fatih Karagümrük0%Draw4%Keçiörengücü96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ahmed Traore
18'
Candan Baskale
24'
34'
Wellington Ferreira Nascimento
45'
⚽Mame Biram Dioufassist: E. Develi
Manolis Siopis
45+3'
🔁Manolis Siopisout: Marius Tresor Doh
45'
45'
🔁Alcídio Raiceout: Jefferson
63'
🔁Francis Ezehout: Moryke Fofana
63'
🔁Odise Roshiout: Herculano·Nabian
65'
⚽Mame Biram Dioufassist: Moryke Fofana
🔁Yaya Onogoout: Dorukhan Toköz
66'
🔁J. Esenout: Ramazan Civelek
66'
🔁Cenk Tosunout: Aleksandar Pešić
66'
73'
Mehmet Erdogan
75'
Süleyman Lus
⚽Ramazan Civelek
77'
85'
🔁E. Develiout: Oguzhan Ayaydin
90+4'
🔁Süleyman Lusout: Tuncer Duhan Aksu

Match stats — Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü

66%Possession34%
23Shots13
6On target4
4Corners1
2.11xG1.7

Goals against chances

Fatih Karagümrük1 from 2.11 xGless than the chances were worth
Keçiörengücü2 from 1.70 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fatih Karagümrük 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. SilvestriG
  • 25M. SarıkayaD
  • 4D. BiraschiD
  • 28A. ÇınarD
  • 21Candan BaskaleD
  • 19Y. OnogoM
  • 20M. SiopisM
  • 26Traore AhmedM
  • 5E. AkbabaM
  • 41J. EsenM
  • 9C. TosunF
Substitutes
  • 27Muhammed KadiogluD
  • 14Marius Tresor DohM
  • 7Baris KalayciF
  • 22R. CivelekM
  • 33Ç. KurukalıpD
  • 72A. PešićF
  • 8D. ToközM
  • 6R. YalçınM
  • 11T. ÇukurF
Coach: A. Stanojević
Keçiörengücü 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. ErdoğanG
  • 12M. KeskinD
  • 3Wellington NascimentoD
  • 4A. ÇelikD
  • 33S. LuşD
  • 14İ. AkdağM
  • 6E. DeveliM
  • 7O. RoshiM
  • 20Alcídio RaiceM
  • 21F. EzehM
  • 55M. DioufF
Substitutes
  • 37D. AksuD
  • 22H. AyanM
  • 16Oğuzhan AyaydınM
  • 45Herculano NabianF
  • 9Ö. DemirelF
  • 77M. FofanaF
  • 10JeffersonM
  • 18E. SatılmışG
  • 19Enes YilmazM
Coach: O. Korkmaz

Form going into Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü

Fatih Karagümrük

1. Lig

  • L0-1away to Mardin 196915 October 2026

Keçiörengücü

1. Lig

  • D0-0Iğdır FK14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Fatih Karagümrük145452016+419
6Keçiörengücü146532618+823

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü

  • 27 April 2025Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
  • 22 December 2024Keçiörengücü 0–1 Fatih Karagümrük1. Lig
  • 12 July 2020Keçiörengücü 3–0 Fatih Karagümrük1. Lig
  • 22 December 2019Fatih Karagümrük 0–2 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
  • 29 April 2017Keçiörengücü 2–3 Fatih Karagümrük2. Lig
  • 17 December 2016Fatih Karagümrük 1–2 Keçiörengücü2. Lig

Leading scorers: Fatih Karagümrük and Keçiörengücü

Fatih Karagümrük

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pešić52

Keçiörengücü

GoalsAssists

  • M. Diouf82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Keçiörengücü won 2–1 at Fatih Karagümrük. The model had leaned towards a win for Fatih Karagümrük at 42% and given a win for Keçiörengücü 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Mame Biram Diouf 45' for Keçiörengücü, Mame Biram Diouf 65' for Keçiörengücü, Ramazan Civelek 77' for Fatih Karagümrük. On expected goals it finished 2.11–1.70.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fatih Karagümrük a 7.1% chance to finish in the top two: 9.0% after a win, 5.8% after a draw, 3.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.8%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.

For Keçiörengücü the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 20.6% going in: 25.4% after a win, 21.3% after a draw, 16.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.4%, 4.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.