19 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 1. Lig prediction & result

Esenler Stadium, Istanbul
Referee: Burak Kamalak
Full time4 – 2

Final score: Esenler Erokspor 4-2 Mardin 1969.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Esenler Erokspor, 34% draw, 32% Mardin 1969 — fair odds of 2.94, 2.94 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Esenler Erokspor at 34%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Mikail Okyarassist: Furkan Orak
6'
Burak Coban
28'
34'
⚽Nafican Yardimciassist: Zdravko Dimitrov
⚽Eray Korkmaz (OG)
39'
45'
🔁Muammer Denizhan Taskanout: Mallik Wilks
45'
🔁Đorđe Denićout: Emre Taşdemir
🔁Burak Cobanout: Yusuf Erdoğan
45'
51'
⚽Mallik Wilksassist: Zdravko Dimitrov
Mame Mor Faye
56'
🔁Mikail Okyarout: Recep Niyaz
58'
🔁Enes Alıçout: Altin Zeqiri
58'
🔁Guélor Kangaout: Ferhat Yazgan
58'
🔁Kubilay Kanatsızkuşout: Erkan Kaş
75'
⚽Mame Mor Fayeassist: Furkan Orak
77'
82'
🔁Eray Korkmazout: O. Yıldırım
Ferhat Yazgan
85'
Furkan Orak
90'
⚽Altin Zeqiriassist: Yusuf Erdoğan
90+3'
Altin Zeqiri
90+3'

Match stats — Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969

62%Possession38%
17Shots12
5On target4
6Corners4
2.44xG0.95

Goals against chances

Esenler Erokspor4 from 2.44 xGmore than the chances were worth
Mardin 19692 from 0.95 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Esenler Erokspor 4-1-4-1
  • 22E. CanpolatG
  • 70F. OrakD
  • 21B. ÖztürkD
  • 4Luccas ClaroD
  • 33E. AlićD
  • 7N. JanvierM
  • 11M. FayeM
  • 8G. KangaM
  • 5M. OkyarM
  • 17B. ÇobanM
  • 9K. KanatsızkuşF
Substitutes
  • 34E. ÇetinG
  • 99P. GuèyeF
  • 53Y. ErdoğanM
  • 20M. BuljubašićM
  • 77H. BilazerD
  • 6T. KaçarM
  • 39E. KaşD
  • 10R. NiyazM
  • 27F. YazganM
Coach: H. Karaman
Mardin 1969 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. KardeşlerG
  • 17E. KorkmazD
  • 25M. ŞengülD
  • 15U. GezerD
  • 3N. YardımcıD
  • 16A. KabakM
  • 42B. AlhassanM
  • 77D. TaşkanM
  • 8Đ. DenićM
  • 10Z. DimitrovM
  • 9O. KayodeF
Substitutes
  • 64B. DoğanD
  • 70Enes ErolM
  • 29Ö. KahveciG
  • 4O. KarsliogluD
  • 33E. TaşdemirD
  • 47M. WilksF
  • 45O. YıldırımF
  • 7Ş. ÇetinM
  • 19A. ÜlükF
Coach: Ivaylo Petev

Form going into Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969

Esenler Erokspor

1. Lig

  • D1-1away to Manisa F.K.15 October 2026

Mardin 1969

1. Lig

  • W1-0Fatih Karagümrük15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Esenler Erokspor144642018+218
4Mardin 1969147431913+625

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969

  • 26 February 2022Esenler Erokspor 3–0 Mardin 19693. Lig - Group 3
  • 13 October 2021Mardin 1969 1–1 Esenler Erokspor3. Lig - Group 3

Leading scorers: Esenler Erokspor and Mardin 1969

Esenler Erokspor

GoalsAssists

  • G. Kanga51

Mardin 1969

GoalsAssists

  • O. Kayode52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Esenler Erokspor beat Mardin 1969 4–2. The goals: Mikail Okyar 6' for Esenler Erokspor, Nafican Yardimci 34' for Mardin 1969, Eray Korkmaz (own goal) 39' for Esenler Erokspor, Mallik Wilks 51' for Mardin 1969, Mame Mor Faye 77' for Esenler Erokspor, Altin Zeqiri 90+3' for Esenler Erokspor. On expected goals it finished 2.44–0.95.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Esenler Erokspor a 10.6% chance to finish in the bottom four: 7.7% after a win, 11.0% after a draw, 12.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.7%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.

For Mardin 1969 the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 21.4% going in: 26.3% after a win, 20.2% after a draw, 16.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.8%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Esenler Erokspor v Mardin 1969 has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 37% / 33% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 34% / 34% / 32%: the biggest move is Esenler Erokspor's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Esenler Erokspor win34%▼ −3
  2. Draw34%▲ +1
  3. Mardin 1969 win32%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.