19 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Bursaspor vs Pendikspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Timsah Park, Bursa
Referee: Melek Dakan
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Bursaspor 2-0 Pendikspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Bursaspor, 21% draw, 14% Pendikspor — fair odds of 1.54, 4.76 and 7.14.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bursaspor at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bursaspor99%Draw1%Pendikspor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Halil Akbunar
10'
🔁Halil Akbunarout: Hüseyin Maldar
45'
59'
Kerem Kalafat
⚽Kelechi Iheanachoassist: Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
62'
63'
🔁Burak Gultekinout: Y. Sönmez
65'
Taha Emre İnce
🔁Soner Aydoğduout: Lewis Baker
69'
73'
🔁Kerem Kalafatout: Erdem Gokce
73'
🔁Efehan Pekdemirout: Mirko susak
Juergen Elitim
75'
🔁B. Gökout: Tural Bayramov
77'
80'
Vinko Soldo
84'
🔁Emrah Başsanout: Onuralp Cakiroglu
84'
🔁Thuramout: damir hrelja
🔁Zeki Yavruout: Rahmetullah Berisbek
84'
🔁Amine Boutrahout: Emir Kaan Gultekin
84'
Lewis Baker
85'

Match stats — Bursaspor vs Pendikspor

67%Possession33%
16Shots8
9On target0
7Corners3
1.26xG0.37

Goals against chances

Bursaspor2 from 1.26 xGmore than the chances were worth
Pendikspor0 from 0.37 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bursaspor 4-2-3-1
  • 98K. MatisliG
  • 18Z. YavruD
  • 4E. ErsoyD
  • 5Emirhan BaşyiğitD
  • 93B. GökD
  • 6J. ElitimM
  • 8S. AydoğduM
  • 7H. AkbunarM
  • 10LincolnM
  • 73A. BoutrahM
  • 14K. ỊheanachọF
Substitutes
  • 34E. AkcanM
  • 9E. GültekinF
  • 39A. KıvançG
  • 66H. MaldarD
  • 57B. YayıkcıD
  • 20B. BaşyiğitF
  • 27T. BayramovD
  • 42L. BakerM
  • 52T. AydoğanM
Coach: M. Er
Pendikspor 4-1-4-1
  • 78E. DadükG
  • 22K. KalafatD
  • 2T. İnceD
  • 6V. SoldoD
  • 17S. AbifadeD
  • 93Burak GültekinM
  • 7E. BaşsanM
  • 14H. YeşilM
  • 28E. PekdemirM
  • 34ThuramM
  • 9J. Clarke-HarrisF
Substitutes
  • 25Favour Agingy FomujangD
  • 23E. GökçeD
  • 88D. HreljaF
  • 99M. KipritF
  • 30E. KoyuncuG
  • 50Mirko ŠušakF
  • 20Y. SönmezM
  • 77A. UğurM
  • 61O. ÇakıroğluF
Coach: Umut Eskiköy

Form going into Bursaspor vs Pendikspor

Bursaspor

1. Lig

  • W3-0away to Muğlaspor15 October 2026

Pendikspor

1. Lig

  • L1-2Vanspor FK13 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Bursaspor1410223012+1832
16Pendikspor143561525-1014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Bursaspor and Pendikspor

Bursaspor

GoalsAssists

  • K. Ịheanachọ173

Pendikspor

No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bursaspor beat Pendikspor 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Bursaspor at 65%. The goals: Halil Akbunar 10' for Bursaspor, Kelechi Iheanacho 62' for Bursaspor. On expected goals it finished 1.26–0.37.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bursaspor a 74.2% chance to finish in the top two: 76.5% after a win, 70.5% after a draw, 63.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.5%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

For Pendikspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 42.9% going in: 32.4% after a win, 42.3% after a draw, 44.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.3%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bursaspor v Pendikspor has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 52% / 27% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 65% / 21% / 14%: the biggest move is Bursaspor's chance of winning, up 13 points.

  1. Bursaspor win65%▲ +13
  2. Draw21%▼ −6
  3. Pendikspor win14%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.