FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% FC Augsburg, 27% draw, 33% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Augsburg at 40% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
Line-ups
- 1F. DahmenG
- 40Noahkai Kai Daniel BanksD
- 5C. MatsimaD
- 2C. BrackelmannD
- 27M. WolfM
- 4H. MassengoM
- 32F. RiederM
- 16Hennes BehrensM
- 19R. FellhauerM
- 21A. IbrahimovićM
- 11M. GregoritschF
- 10M. KömürM
- 22N. LabrovićG
- 39U. OgunduF
- 7Seol Young-WooD
- 35Abdulay BahD
- 20A. Claude-MauriceM
- 9Rodrigo RibeiroF
- 6J. GouweleeuwD
- 14Y. KeitelM
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 4J. QuansahD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 6E. FernándezM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 19M. DiabyM
- 30I. MazaM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 35Christian KofaneF
- 5L. BadéD
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 20G. DouéD
- 7J. HofmannM
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 14P. SchickF
- 11M. TerrierF
- 10M. TillmanM
- 8R. AndrichM
Form going into FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
- W4-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt6 September 2026
- W3-0FC Schalke 0430 August 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
- W4-0Union Berlin5 September 2026
- L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Augsburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 7 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
- 12 September 2026FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 18 April 2026Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 6 December 2025FC Augsburg 2–0 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 26 April 2025Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 14 December 2024FC Augsburg 0–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 18 May 2024Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 FC AugsburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
- M. Gregoritsch3 goals
Bayer Leverkusen
- P. Schick3 goals1 assists
- Christian Kofane2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.