FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% FC Augsburg, 27% draw, 33% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FC Augsburg at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
Line-ups
- 1F. DahmenG
- 40Noahkai Kai Daniel BanksD
- 5C. MatsimaD
- 2C. BrackelmannD
- 27M. WolfM
- 4H. MassengoM
- 32F. RiederM
- 16Hennes BehrensM
- 19R. FellhauerM
- 21A. IbrahimovićM
- 11M. GregoritschF
- 10M. KömürM
- 22N. LabrovićG
- 39U. OgunduF
- 7Seol Young-WooD
- 35Abdulay BahD
- 20A. Claude-MauriceM
- 9Rodrigo RibeiroF
- 6J. GouweleeuwD
- 14Y. KeitelM
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 4J. QuansahD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 6E. FernándezM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 19M. DiabyM
- 30I. MazaM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 35Christian KofaneF
- 5L. BadéD
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 20G. DouéD
- 7J. HofmannM
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 14P. SchickF
- 11M. TerrierF
- 10M. TillmanM
- 8R. AndrichM
Form going into FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
All competitions we cover
- W4-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt6 September 2026
- W3-0FC Schalke 0430 August 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Union Berlin5 September 2026
- L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
- 18 April 2026Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 6 December 2025FC Augsburg 2–0 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 26 April 2025Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 14 December 2024FC Augsburg 0–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 18 May 2024Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 FC AugsburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
GoalsAssists
- M. Gregoritsch50
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick82
- I. Maza33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Augsburg at 40% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Christian Kofane 18' for Bayer Leverkusen, Michael Gregoritsch 50' for FC Augsburg, Michael Gregoritsch 55' for FC Augsburg, Patrik Schick 89' for Bayer Leverkusen.
How the call on FC Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 36% / 27% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is FC Augsburg's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- FC Augsburg win40%▲ +4
- Draw27%=
- Bayer Leverkusen win33%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.