12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC

SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga prediction & result

Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
Full time5 – 0

Final score: SC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% SC Freiburg, 29% draw, 26% Borussia Mönchengladbach — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts SC Freiburg at 45% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SC Freiburg99%Draw1%Borussia Mönchengladbach0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Tim Kleindienst
14'
Kevin Diks
⚽Yannick Engelhardtassist: Derry Lionel Scherhant
23'
⚽Igor Matanovicassist: Matthias Ginter
29'
45'
🔁Hugo Bolinout: Shuto Machino
52'
Tim Kleindienst
67'
🔁Robin Hackout: Wael Mohya
67'
🔁Franck Honoratout: Isac Lidberg
🔁Derry Lionel Scherhantout: Vincenzo Grifo
67'
⚽Igor Matanovicassist: Jordy Makengo
77'
🔁Igor Matanovicout: Lucas Höler
78'
🔁Yuito Suzukiout: Keisuke Goto
78'
⚽Yannick Engelhardtassist: Matthias Ginter
79'
🔁Jan-Niklas Besteout: Cyriaque Irié
82'
🔁Philipp Treuout: Lukas Kübler
82'
83'
🔁Kevin Stögerout: mathieu nguefack
⚽Maximilian Eggestein
86'
Cyriaque Irié
90+2'
90+2'
Joe Scally

Match stats — SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

60%Possession40%
19Shots5
9On target0
6Corners2

Line-ups

SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. BackhausG
  • 29P. TreuD
  • 28M. GinterD
  • 3P. LienhartD
  • 33J. MakengoD
  • 8M. EggesteinM
  • 16Y. EngelhardtM
  • 19J. BesteM
  • 14Y. SuzukiM
  • 7D. ScherhantM
  • 31I. MatanovićF
Substitutes
  • 42K. GotoF
  • 32V. GrifoM
  • 30C. GünterD
  • 9L. HölerF
  • 22Cyriaque Kalou IriéF
  • 17L. KüblerD
  • 21F. MüllerG
  • 37M. RosenfelderD
  • 27Berkay YilmazD
Coach: J. Schuster
Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-4-2
  • 1M. NicolasG
  • 29J. ScallyD
  • 6K. ItakuraD
  • 4K. DiksD
  • 20D. HeroldD
  • 9F. HonoratM
  • 16P. SanderM
  • 7K. StögerM
  • 25R. HackM
  • 38H. BolinF
  • 11T. KleindienstF
Substitutes
  • 18S. MachinoF
  • 36W. MohyaM
  • 10F. NeuhausM
  • 34M. NguefackM
  • 26L. UllrichD
  • 3I. LidbergF
  • 5J. LeszczyńskiD
  • 2F. ChiarodiaD
  • 33D. BatzG
Coach: E. Polanski

Form going into SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

SC Freiburg

  • W1-0away to SC Paderborn 075 September 2026
  • W4-1Werder Bremen30 August 2026

Borussia Mönchengladbach

  • L3-4SV Elversberg5 September 2026
  • L0-3away to RB Leipzig29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1SC Freiburg3300101+99
17Borussia Mönchengladbach3003312-90

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

  • 12 September 2026SC Freiburg 5–0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
  • 22 February 2026SC Freiburg 2–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
  • 5 October 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • 12 April 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • 30 November 2024SC Freiburg 3–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
  • 30 March 2024Borussia Monchengladbach 0–3 SC FreiburgBundesliga

Leading scorers: SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach

SC Freiburg

  • I. Matanović3 goals1 assists
  • Y. Suzuki3 goals

Borussia Mönchengladbach

  • H. Bolin2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.