FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% FSV Mainz 05, 27% draw, 30% Eintracht Frankfurt — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FSV Mainz 05 at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Line-ups
- 27R. ZentnerG
- 4S. PoschD
- 3F. GruberD
- 48K. PotulskiD
- 6K. SanoM
- 19A. CaciM
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 10N. AmiriM
- 2P. MweneM
- 23S. BeckerF
- 9P. TietzF
- 21D. da CostaD
- 17B. HollerbachF
- 16S. BellD
- 24S. KawasakiM
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 47R. NakuzolaD
- 20O. RuoppiM
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 1N. AtuboluG
- 37J. MaluzeD
- 4R. KochD
- 3L. BrassierD
- 2Elias BaumM
- 15N. Aséko NkiliM
- 25R. OnyedikaM
- 26K. KosugiM
- 20R. DōanM
- 42C. UzunM
- 9J. BurkardtF
- 35M. PimpongF
- 5OtávioD
- 40Kauã SantosG
- 27M. GötzeM
- 11Y. EbnoutalibF
- 34N. CollinsD
- 22T. ChandlerD
- 31L. ArrhovM
- 29A. AmaimouniF
Form going into FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
FSV Mainz 05
All competitions we cover
- W5-0away to Hamburger SV6 September 2026
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0729 August 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions we cover
- L1-4FC Augsburg6 September 2026
- D3-3away to Union Berlin29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- 22 March 2026FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 9 November 2025Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 4 May 2025FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 21 December 2024Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 26 January 2024Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Leading scorers: FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz60
- A. Caci33
Eintracht Frankfurt
GoalsAssists
- Y. Ebnoutalib61
- J. Burkardt51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Eintracht Frankfurt won 3–1 at FSV Mainz 05. The model had leaned towards a win for FSV Mainz 05 at 43% and given a win for Eintracht Frankfurt 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Can Yilmaz Uzun 9' for Eintracht Frankfurt, Jonathan Burkardt 45+1' for Eintracht Frankfurt, Can Yilmaz Uzun 60' for Eintracht Frankfurt, Phillip Tietz 89' for FSV Mainz 05.
How the call on FSV Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 27% / 30%: the biggest move is FSV Mainz 05's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- FSV Mainz 05 win43%▼ −3
- Draw27%=
- Eintracht Frankfurt win30%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.