12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC

FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga prediction & result

Mewa Arena, Mainz
Full time1 – 3

Final score: FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% FSV Mainz 05, 27% draw, 30% Eintracht Frankfurt — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FSV Mainz 05 at 43% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FSV Mainz 050%Draw1%Eintracht Frankfurt99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽Can Yilmaz Uzunassist: Jonathan Burkardt
41'
Raphael Onyedika Nwadike
⚽Nadiem Amiri (pen)
43'
45+1'
⚽Jonathan Burkardtassist: Jeremiaha Maluze
🔁Lee Jae-Sungout: Ransford Konigsdorffer
45'
59'
🔁Noel Asekoout: Mario Götze
60'
⚽Can Yilmaz Uzunassist: Mario Götze
🔁Anthony Caciout: Danny da Costa
62'
70'
Mario Götze
74'
🔁Jonathan Burkardtout: Younes Ebnoutalib
🔁Phillipp Mweneout: Rael Nakuzola
74'
🔁Sheraldo Beckerout: Benedict Hollerbach
74'
🔁Nadiem Amiriout: Otto Ruoppi
85'
87'
🔁Can Yilmaz Uzunout: Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab
87'
🔁Elias Niklas Baumout: Timothy Chandler
⚽Phillip Tietzassist: Otto Ruoppi
89'

Match stats — FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt

55%Possession45%
18Shots11
5On target5
4Corners5

Line-ups

FSV Mainz 05 3-1-4-2
  • 27R. ZentnerG
  • 4S. PoschD
  • 3F. GruberD
  • 48K. PotulskiD
  • 6K. SanoM
  • 19A. CaciM
  • 7Lee Jae-SungM
  • 10N. AmiriM
  • 2P. MweneM
  • 23S. BeckerF
  • 9P. TietzF
Substitutes
  • 21D. da CostaD
  • 17B. HollerbachF
  • 16S. BellD
  • 24S. KawasakiM
  • 11R. KönigsdörfferF
  • 15L. MaloneyM
  • 47R. NakuzolaD
  • 20O. RuoppiM
  • 1A. SchwolowG
Coach: U. Fischer
Eintracht Frankfurt 3-4-2-1
  • 1N. AtuboluG
  • 37J. MaluzeD
  • 4R. KochD
  • 3L. BrassierD
  • 2Elias BaumM
  • 15N. Aséko NkiliM
  • 25R. OnyedikaM
  • 26K. KosugiM
  • 20R. DōanM
  • 42C. UzunM
  • 9J. BurkardtF
Substitutes
  • 35M. PimpongF
  • 5OtávioD
  • 40Kauã SantosG
  • 27M. GötzeM
  • 11Y. EbnoutalibF
  • 34N. CollinsD
  • 22T. ChandlerD
  • 31L. ArrhovM
  • 29A. AmaimouniF
Coach: A. Hütter

Form going into FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt

FSV Mainz 05

  • W5-0away to Hamburger SV6 September 2026
  • D0-0SC Paderborn 0729 August 2026

Eintracht Frankfurt

  • L1-4FC Augsburg6 September 2026
  • D3-3away to Union Berlin29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8FSV Mainz 05311163+34
9Eintracht Frankfurt311178-14

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt

  • 12 September 2026FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
  • 22 March 2026FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
  • 9 November 2025Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
  • 4 May 2025FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
  • 21 December 2024Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
  • 26 January 2024Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

Leading scorers: FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt

FSV Mainz 05

  • P. Tietz3 goals

Eintracht Frankfurt

  • Y. Ebnoutalib3 goals1 assists
  • J. Burkardt2 goals1 assists
  • C. Uzun2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.