Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Borussia Mönchengladbach, 24% draw, 27% FSV Mainz 05 — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Borussia Mönchengladbach at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05
Line-ups
- 1M. NicolasG
- 6K. ItakuraD
- 5J. LeszczyńskiD
- 4K. DiksD
- 29J. ScallyM
- 38H. BolinM
- 16P. SanderM
- 26L. UllrichM
- 9F. HonoratM
- 10F. NeuhausM
- 3I. LidbergF
- 2F. ChiarodiaD
- 25R. HackM
- 14D. HashiokaD
- 20D. HeroldD
- 33D. BatzG
- 18S. MachinoF
- 36W. MohyaM
- 34M. NguefackM
- 7K. StögerM
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 4S. PoschD
- 3F. GruberD
- 48K. PotulskiD
- 19A. CaciM
- 10N. AmiriM
- 6K. SanoM
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 2P. MweneM
- 9P. TietzF
- 23S. BeckerF
- 16S. BellD
- 21D. da CostaD
- 17B. HollerbachF
- 40M. KinzigG
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 5E. MartelM
- 47R. NakuzolaD
- 20O. RuoppiM
Form going into Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Mönchengladbach
All competitions we cover
- L0-5away to SC Freiburg12 September 2026
- L3-4SV Elversberg5 September 2026
- L0-3away to RB Leipzig29 August 2026
FSV Mainz 05
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Eintracht Frankfurt12 September 2026
- W5-0away to Hamburger SV6 September 2026
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0729 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 4 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05
- 19 April 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 5 December 2025FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 7 March 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–3 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 25 October 2024FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 2 March 2024FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
Leading scorers: Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Mönchengladbach
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz60
- A. Caci33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FSV Mainz 05 won 4–3 at Borussia Mönchengladbach. The model had leaned towards a win for Borussia Mönchengladbach at 49% and given a win for FSV Mainz 05 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Florian Neuhaus 11' for Borussia Mönchengladbach, Phillip Tietz 18' for FSV Mainz 05, Sheraldo Becker 45+1' for FSV Mainz 05, Isac Lidberg 59' for Borussia Mönchengladbach, Eric Martel 78' for FSV Mainz 05, Danny da Costa 89' for FSV Mainz 05, Shuto Machino (penalty) 90+5' for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
How the call on Borussia Mönchengladbach v FSV Mainz 05 has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 49% / 24% / 27%: the biggest move is Borussia Mönchengladbach's chance of winning, up 14 points.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win49%▲ +14
- Draw24%▼ −4
- FSV Mainz 05 win27%▼ −10
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.