19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC

Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln Bundesliga prediction & result

Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Hamburger SV 2-1 1. FC Köln.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Hamburger SV, 29% draw, 31% 1. FC Köln — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hamburger SV at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hamburger SV99%Draw1%1. FC Köln0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Albert Grönbaek
10'
⚽Nicolás Capaldoassist: Albert Grönbaek
44'
🔁Terem Moffiout: Yussuf Poulsen
45'
⚽Yussuf Poulsenassist: Albert Grönbaek
49'
54'
Gideon Mensah
64'
🔁Gideon Mensahout: Borna Sosa
64'
🔁Thijs Dallingaout: Ragnar Ache
🔁Albert Grönbaekout: Patson Daka
67'
67'
🔁Alessio Castro-Montesout: Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
🔁David Moller Wolfeout: Louis Pepe Lemke
77'
🔁Zakaria El Ouahdiout: Bakery Jatta
77'
77'
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
81'
🔁Tom Kraußout: Luca Waldschmidt
81'
🔁Linton Mainaout: Marius Bülter
84'
Ellyes Skhiri
🔁Albert Sambi Lokongaout: Martin Adeline
90'
90'
⚽Ragnar Acheassist: Ellyes Skhiri

Match stats — Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln

45%Possession55%
12Shots18
7On target5
3Corners5

Line-ups

Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1
  • 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
  • 24N. CapaldoD
  • 23J. TorunarighaD
  • 17W. OmariD
  • 7Z. El OuahdiM
  • 6A. Sambi LokongaM
  • 21N. RembergM
  • 3D. Møller WolfeM
  • 20Fábio VieiraM
  • 11A. GrønbækM
  • 9T. MoffiF
Substitutes
  • 37L. LemkeD
  • 4B. NadirM
  • 15Y. PoulsenF
  • 43S. NandjaD
  • 5M. AdelineM
  • 27P. DakaF
  • 18B. JattaM
  • 19Otto Emerson StangeF
  • 12S. TangvikG
Coach: M. Polzin
1. FC Köln 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. SchwäbeG
  • 17A. Castro-MontesD
  • 22Jahmai Simpson-PuseyD
  • 24L. LochoshviliD
  • 14G. MensahD
  • 5T. KraußM
  • 6E. SkhiriM
  • 37L. MainaM
  • 47M. MooreM
  • 10S. El MalaM
  • 27T. DallingaF
Substitutes
  • 30M. BülterF
  • 2J. SchmiedD
  • 28S. SebulonsenD
  • 3B. SosaD
  • 29J. ThielmannM
  • 7L. WaldschmidtF
  • 20R. ZielerG
  • 9R. AcheF
  • 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
Coach: René Wagner

Form going into Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln

Hamburger SV

All competitions we cover

  • L0-5away to RB Leipzig13 September 2026
  • L0-5FSV Mainz 056 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Borussia Dortmund29 August 2026

1. FC Köln

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Werder Bremen12 September 2026
  • L1-4away to VfB Stuttgart4 September 2026
  • W3-21899 Hoffenheim29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Hamburger SV94051020-1012
151. FC Köln92341014-49

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln

  • 14 March 2026Hamburger SV 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 2 November 20251. FC Köln 4–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
  • 18 January 2025Hamburger SV 1–0 1. FC Köln2. Bundesliga
  • 2 August 20241. FC Köln 1–2 Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga
  • 7 January 20231. FC Köln 4–0 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs

The full Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln record →

The result against the call

Hamburger SV beat 1. FC Köln 2–1. The model had made a win for Hamburger SV its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Nicolás Capaldo 44' for Hamburger SV, Yussuf Poulsen 49' for Hamburger SV, Ragnar Ache 90' for 1. FC Köln.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.