Botafogo SP vs Ceara Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Botafogo SP 1-0 Ceara.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Botafogo SP, 28% draw, 44% Ceara — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Ceara at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botafogo SP vs Ceara
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Victor SouzaG
- 2JonathanD
- 3EricsonD
- 4VilarD
- 22Gabriel InocêncioM
- 8Everton MorelliM
- 16Matheus SalesM
- 6Patrick BreyM
- 10Rafael GavaF
- 9HygorF
- 7KelvinF
- 26Felipe VieiraD
- 17Guilherme QueirózF
- 21Jadson Alves de LimaF
- 20Yuri Felipe Santos da ConceiçãoM
- 18Arthur CaíkeF
- 34BadaróD
- 27DarlanD
- 29Thiago HenriqueM
- 31Pedro HenriqueD
- 1RichardG
- 18JúlioD
- 4Luiz OtávioD
- 13Luiz OtávioD
- 12SanchezD
- 81Joao GabrielM
- 25Vinicius ZanoceloM
- 60Enzo LodovicoM
- 8Matheus AraújoM
- 40RichardM
- 73Saulo MineiroF
- 7Giovanni PavaniM
- 16Rian SantanaF
- 26RichardsonM
- 11N. FerreiraF
- 33ÉderD
- 2Rafael RamosD
- 23Caíque FrançaG
- 99LuccaF
- 77Lenny LobatoF
Form going into Botafogo SP vs Ceara
Botafogo SP
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Operario-PR7 October 2026
- L0-1Vila Nova3 October 2026
Ceara
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Criciuma8 October 2026
- W1-0away to Avai3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Botafogo SP | 38 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 45 | 41 | +4 | 51 |
| 16 | Ceara | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo SP vs Ceara
- 20 June 2026Ceara 0–1 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 13 November 2024Botafogo SP 1–4 CearaSerie B
- 26 July 2024Ceara 4–1 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 4 November 2023Botafogo SP 2–2 CearaSerie B
- 8 July 2023Ceara 3–0 Botafogo SPSerie B
Leading scorers: Botafogo SP and Ceara
Botafogo SP
GoalsAssists
- Hygor110
- Everton Morelli104
Ceara
GoalsAssists
- Richard74
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Botafogo SP beat Ceara 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Ceara at 44% and given a win for Botafogo SP 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Hygor 74' for Botafogo SP. On expected goals it finished 0.86–0.50.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Botafogo SP a 4.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 3.2% after a draw, 6.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Botafogo SP v Ceara has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 29% / 29% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 28% / 28% / 44%: the biggest move is Ceara's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Botafogo SP win28%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Ceara win44%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.