Queen's Park vs Inverness CT Championship prediction & result
Final score: Queen's Park 2-1 Inverness CT.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Queen's Park, 27% draw, 47% Inverness CT — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Inverness CT at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1D. MitchellG
- 2Zach MauchinD
- 12C. PignatielloD
- 5R. LamieD
- 22M. ShielsD
- 7L. LongridgeM
- 26Ben BrannanM
- 11A. ConnollyM
- 24A. McCallionM
- 14L. StewartM
- 9M. RuthF
- 27C. SmithF
- 8S. MartinM
- 25Z. LawsonF
- 17T. McDonnellM
- 21R. McLeanM
- 77N. TodorovF
- 20K. RodgerD
- 31M. SliwinskiG
- 1R. MunroG
- 2C. MacleodD
- 15K. SmithD
- 5Remmi Eugene SavageD
- 4G. ShinnieD
- 26R. MacGregorM
- 7P. AllanM
- 16R. DuncanM
- 8A. MackinnonM
- 11L. LongstaffM
- 9L. StewartF
- 12D. MackayM
- 20D. OsongF
- 21L. RossG
- 17L. SoleM
- 35A. StewartM
- 10D. WotherspoonM
- 6D. DevineD
- 3Noa BoutinD
- 36A. BavidgeF
Form going into Queen's Park vs Inverness CT
Queen's Park
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Raith Rovers10 October 2026
Inverness CT
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Stenhousemuir10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Scotland Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Queen's Park | 15 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 25 | -17 | 7 |
| 6 | Inverness CT | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Queen's Park vs Inverness CT
- 13 April 2024Queen's Park 0–1 Inverness CTChampionship
- 3 February 2024Inverness CT 0–1 Queen's ParkChampionship
- 9 December 2023Queen's Park 1–4 Inverness CTChampionship
- 5 August 2023Inverness CT 1–2 Queen's ParkChampionship
- 18 March 2023Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CTChampionship
The result against the call
Queen's Park beat Inverness CT 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Inverness CT at 47% and given a win for Queen's Park 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: G. Shinnie 7' for Inverness CT, A. Connolly 18' for Queen's Park, A. Connolly 41' for Queen's Park.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Inverness CT a 28.5% chance to finish in the top four: 32.0% after a win, 26.0% after a draw, 22.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.7%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Queen's Park v Inverness CT has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 31% / 29% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 26% / 27% / 47%: the biggest move is Inverness CT's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Queen's Park win26%▼ −5
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Inverness CT win47%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.