Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Botafogo SP 1-1 Sport Recife.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Botafogo SP, 27% draw, 32% Sport Recife — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Botafogo SP at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Victor SouzaG
- 22Gabriel InocêncioD
- 2JonathanD
- 4VilarD
- 27DarlanD
- 26Felipe VieiraD
- 8Everton MorelliM
- 10Rafael GavaM
- 5L. MacielM
- 30Zé HugoM
- 9HygorF
- 13WallaceD
- 7KelvinF
- 19Henrique Lôvo TelesD
- 29Thiago HenriqueM
- 23Wesley Pinheiro SantosF
- 20Yuri Felipe Santos da ConceiçãoM
- 31Pedro HenriqueD
- 12JordanG
- 28Marco AntônioM
- 26Thiago CoutoG
- 27ClaudinhoD
- 5Marcelo BenevenutoD
- 28HabraãoD
- 76RaíD
- 88Fernando SobralM
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 30Chrystian BarlettaM
- 20D. HernándezM
- 7Patrick de PaulaM
- 9PerottiF
- 80K. AndradeF
- 8Juan AlanoF
- 19Neto PessoaF
- 21BrennoG
- 96EdsonD
- 68AugustoD
- 25ClaysonM
- 6BielM
- 10C. de PenaM
Form going into Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife
Botafogo SP
Serie B
- W2-0away to Avai24 October 2026
- W1-0away to CRB18 October 2026
Sport Recife
Serie B
- W2-1Criciuma24 October 2026
- L0-2Fortaleza EC16 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Botafogo SP | 38 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 45 | 41 | +4 | 51 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 53 | 42 | +11 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife
- 10 July 2026Sport Recife 3–3 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 21 October 2024Sport Recife 3–1 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 29 June 2024Botafogo SP 1–1 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 3 September 2023Botafogo SP 1–1 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 20 May 2023Sport Recife 3–0 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 14 November 2019Botafogo SP 0–2 Sport RecifeSerie B
Leading scorers: Botafogo SP and Sport Recife
Botafogo SP
GoalsAssists
- Hygor110
- Everton Morelli104
Sport Recife
GoalsAssists
- Perotti151
- Chrystian Barletta144
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Botafogo SP and Sport Recife drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Botafogo SP at 41% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Hygor 39' for Botafogo SP, Pedro Henrique Perotti 45+1' for Sport Recife. On expected goals it finished 0.94–0.88.
How the call on Botafogo SP v Sport Recife has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 32% / 28% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 27% / 32%: the biggest move is Botafogo SP's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Botafogo SP win41%▲ +9
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Sport Recife win32%▼ −8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.