28 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Pisa vs Palermo Serie B prediction & result

Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa
Referee: Daniele Chiffi
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Pisa 3-3 Palermo.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Pisa, 27% draw, 34% Palermo — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pisa at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pisa4%Draw92%Palermo4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Filippo Pittarelloassist: Simone Zanon
26'
33'
🔁Mattia Baniout: Giangiacomo Magnani
⚽Filippo Pittarelloassist: Rosen Bozhinov
40'
Andrea Primasso
45+2'
45'
🔁Emmanuel Gyasiout: Dominic Vavassori
45'
🔁Filippo·Ranocchiaout: Hernani
53'
⚽Dennis Johnsenassist: Tommaso Augello
57'
⚽Patryk Pedaassist: Joel Pohjanpalo
64'
🔁Niccolo Pierozziout: Tommaso Cassandro
69'
⚽Dominic Vavassori
🔁Filippo Pittarelloout: Andrea Petagna
70'
🔁Felipe Loyolaout: Isak Vural
70'
🔁Simone Zanonout: Emanuele Rao
70'
⚽Tommaso Marrasassist: Emanuele Rao
80'
81'
🔁Joel Pohjanpaloout: Pietro Ceccaroni
Felipe Loyola
82'
🔁Andrea Primassoout: Simone Canestrelli
90+7'

Match stats — Pisa vs Palermo

53%Possession47%
12Shots13
6On target5
5Corners3
2.5xG1.32

Goals against chances

Pisa3 from 2.50 xGmore than the chances were worth
Palermo3 from 1.32 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Pisa 3-4-2-1
  • 98A. ConfenteG
  • 13A. PrimassoD
  • 2R. BozhinovD
  • 3S. AngoriD
  • 72S. ZanonM
  • 14F. LoyolaM
  • 29O. CorreiaM
  • 7M. LérisM
  • 23T. MarrasM
  • 32S. MoreoM
  • 8F. PittarelloF
Substitutes
  • 36G. PiccininiM
  • 1S. ScuffetG
  • 21İ. VuralM
  • 5S. CanestrelliD
  • 92Brando BettazziM
  • 4A. CaraccioloD
  • 26F. CoppolaD
  • 44D. DenoonD
  • 11I. FerrahM
Coach: P. Bianco
Palermo 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. PerinG
  • 27N. PierozziD
  • 13M. BaniD
  • 29P. PedaD
  • 3T. AugelloD
  • 24N. EstévezM
  • 10F. RanocchiaM
  • 11E. GyasiM
  • 36L. MazzitelliM
  • 17D. JohnsenM
  • 20J. PohjanpaloF
Substitutes
  • 32P. CeccaroniD
  • 23HernaniM
  • 33A. BozzolanD
  • 84T. CassandroD
  • 14M. FortinG
  • 99A. GabrielloniF
  • 6C. GomesM
  • 96G. MagnaniD
  • 12M. NespolaG
Coach: F. Inzaghi

Form going into Pisa vs Palermo

Pisa

Serie B

  • D1-1away to Hellas Verona25 October 2026
  • W3-1Cremonese17 October 2026

Palermo

Serie B

  • W2-1Carrarese25 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Mantova17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Pisa114432017+316
1Palermo118302513+1227

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pisa vs Palermo

  • 31 January 2025Palermo 1–2 PisaSerie B
  • 24 August 2024Pisa 2–0 PalermoSerie B
  • 1 April 2024Pisa 4–3 PalermoSerie B
  • 16 December 2023Palermo 3–2 PisaSerie B
  • 4 March 2023Pisa 1–1 PalermoSerie B
  • 15 October 2022Palermo 3–3 PisaSerie B

Leading scorers: Pisa and Palermo

Pisa

GoalsAssists

  • F. Pittarello41
  • M. Tramoni35
  • T. Marras31

Palermo

GoalsAssists

  • D. Johnsen75
  • D. Vavassori61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Pisa and Palermo drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Pisa at 39% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Filippo Pittarello 26' for Pisa, Filippo Pittarello 40' for Pisa, Dennis Johnsen 53' for Palermo, Patryk Peda 57' for Palermo, Dominic Vavassori 69' for Palermo, Tommaso Marras 80' for Pisa. On expected goals it finished 2.50–1.32.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pisa a 21.2% chance to finish in the top two: 25.0% after a win, 20.6% after a draw, 15.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 20.6%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.

For Palermo the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 42.8% going in: 50.1% after a win, 41.1% after a draw, 37.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 41.1%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Pisa v Palermo has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 39% / 27% / 34%: the biggest move is Pisa's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Pisa win39%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Palermo win34%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.