31 October 2026, 22:30 UTC

Nautico Recife vs Avai Serie B prediction & result

Recife
Referee: Afro Rocha De Carvalho Filho
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Nautico Recife 1-0 Avai.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Nautico Recife, 27% draw, 29% Avai — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nautico Recife at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nautico Recife96%Draw4%Avai0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
Jefferson Maciel
🔁Alberto Magno Santos de Melo Filhoout: Léo Índio
7'
Paulo Sérgio
8'
Benjamín Borasi
17'
18'
João Vitor
Samuel
21'
⚽Benjamín Borasiassist: Luan Sales
23'
37'
Zé Ricardo
45'
🔁João Vitorout: Léo Gamalho
45'
🔁Caio Suassuna Gonçalves Ferreiraout: Wallison
45'
🔁Daniel Penhaout: Gaspar
🔁Paulo Sérgioout: Luiz Cláudio
58'
🔁Luiz Pauloout: Wanderson Camelo Viana
58'
🔁Luan Salesout: Reginaldo
58'
63'
🔁Wendersonout: Hyan
70'
🔁Paulo Vitorout: Kauã Gabriel Pereira Dos Santos
Léo Índio
71'
🔁Viniciusout: Todinho
78'
Ryan Santos
86'
88'
Douglas da Silva Teixeira

Match stats — Nautico Recife vs Avai

51%Possession49%
16Shots17
7On target6
7Corners7
1.3xG0.44

Goals against chances

Nautico Recife1 from 1.30 xGabout what the chances were worth
Avai0 from 0.44 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
  • 1MurielG
  • 2ArnaldoD
  • 60Luiz PauloD
  • 3AlbertoD
  • 23Igor FernandesD
  • 8WendersonM
  • 41SamuelM
  • 7ViníciusM
  • 10Jean CarlosM
  • 24B. BorasiM
  • 9Paulo SérgioF
Substitutes
  • 19Kaua Almeida da CostaF
  • 16Luiz CláudioF
  • 5AuremirM
  • 72DerekF
  • 15Léo ÍndioM
  • 13Gabriel Severino de SousaD
  • 6RyanD
  • 29Júnior TodinhoF
  • 27Luiz FelipeM
Coach: Bruno Pivetti
Avai 4-2-3-1
  • 94Bruno FerreiraG
  • 22João Vitor Cardoso de SouzaD
  • 15Guilherme VargasD
  • 38Jefferson MacielD
  • 36DGD
  • 77Zé RicardoM
  • 25Paulo VitorM
  • 14Daniel PenhaM
  • 95WendersonM
  • 10Jean LucasM
  • 19Caio Suassuna Gonçalves FerreiraF
Substitutes
  • 66QuaresmaD
  • 70GasparF
  • 30Kauã Gabriel Pereira Dos SantosF
  • 2WallisonD
  • 9Léo GamalhoF
  • 18HyanM
  • 1Igor BohnG
  • 37RildoF
  • 35PedrãoD
Coach: Allan Aal

Form going into Nautico Recife vs Avai

Nautico Recife

Serie B

  • L0-4away to Juventude26 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Goias19 October 2026

Avai

Serie B

  • L0-2Botafogo SP24 October 2026
  • D0-0Athletic Club MG18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Nautico Recife381210164151-1046
17Avai38127193747-1043

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nautico Recife vs Avai

  • 12 July 2026Avai 2–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
  • 21 November 2021Nautico Recife 1–2 AvaiSerie B
  • 14 August 2021Avai 2–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
  • 6 November 2020Nautico Recife 2–2 AvaiSerie B
  • 9 August 2020Avai 3–1 Nautico RecifeSerie B
  • 12 November 2016Avai 3–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B

Leading scorers: Nautico Recife and Avai

Nautico Recife

GoalsAssists

  • Vinícius93

Avai

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nautico Recife beat Avai 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Nautico Recife at 44%. The goal: Benjamín Borasi 23' for Nautico Recife. On expected goals it finished 1.30–0.44.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nautico Recife a 6.6% chance to finish in the bottom four: 0.0% after a win, 3.3% after a draw, 18.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.

For Avai the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 90.5% going in: 74.2% after a win, 94.6% after a draw, 99.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.3%, 8.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.