31 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Vila Nova vs Juventude Serie B prediction & result

Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiania
Referee: Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Vila Nova 2-2 Juventude.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Vila Nova, 29% draw, 35% Juventude — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vila Nova at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vila Nova4%Draw93%Juventude3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

42'
Marcos Paulo Lima Batista Silva
•Everton Galdino
45+4'
45'
🔁Luis Amarillaout: Lucas Mineiro
46'
Aderlan
Igor Cariús
54'
⚽Jandersonassist: Higor Luiz de Souza
55'
João Pedro Vieira
62'
68'
🔁Marcos Paulo Lima Batista Silvaout: Lucas Alves
68'
🔁Marcos Pauloout: Juan
72'
Messias Rodrigues da Silva Júnior
🔁Igor Cariúsout: Nathan Camargo
73'
76'
⚽Lucas Alvesassist: Juan
🔁André Luísout: Guilherme Augusto Alves Dellatorre
80'
🔁Marquinhos Gabrielout: Raphael Guimarães de Paula
80'
⚽Eduardo Dos Santos
83'
86'
⚽Safiraassist: Lucas Alves
87'
🔁Aderlanout: Patryck
88'
🔁Safiraout: Cristian Chagas Tarouco

Match stats — Vila Nova vs Juventude

59%Possession41%
20Shots12
7On target9
9Corners2
1.41xG1.39

Goals against chances

Vila Nova2 from 1.41 xGmore than the chances were worth
Juventude2 from 1.39 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vila Nova 4-2-3-1
  • 1Helton LeiteG
  • 16Igor CariúsD
  • 23Jonathan CostaD
  • 4Douglas MendesD
  • 6HigorD
  • 5João VieiraM
  • 15DuduM
  • 17Everton GaldinoM
  • 10Marquinhos GabrielM
  • 99JandersonM
  • 7André LuísF
Substitutes
  • 20Nathan CamargoM
  • 9LincolnF
  • 8Willian MaranhãoM
  • 29DalbersonG
  • 31DodôM
  • 11Ryan LimaF
  • 70Emerson UrsoF
  • 21Higor MeritãoM
  • 3Tiago PagnussatD
Coach: Guto Ferreira
Juventude 3-4-3
  • 93JandreiG
  • 34Rodrigo SamD
  • 4MessiasD
  • 47Marcos PauloD
  • 13AderlanM
  • 75RaíM
  • 29Gabriel PiresM
  • 16Diogo BarbosaM
  • 25Alisson SafiraF
  • 18L. AmarillaF
  • 10Marcos PauloF
Substitutes
  • 5Luan GonçalvesD
  • 30PatryckD
  • 3TitiD
  • 17M. CastroF
  • 72Lucas AlvesF
  • 6WadsonD
  • 70Juan ChristianF
  • 12Pedro RochaG
  • 8Lucas MineiroM
Coach: Maurício Barbieri

Form going into Vila Nova vs Juventude

Vila Nova

Serie B

  • L2-3away to São Bernardo24 October 2026
  • D2-2Novorizontino18 October 2026

Juventude

Serie B

  • W4-0Nautico Recife26 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Ceara17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Vila Nova38199105339+1466
2Juventude38201175126+2571

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vila Nova vs Juventude

  • 10 July 2026Juventude 1–0 Vila NovaSerie B
  • 7 August 2023Juventude 0–2 Vila NovaSerie B
  • 30 April 2023Vila Nova 1–0 JuventudeSerie B
  • 9 April 2021Vila Nova 1–1 JuventudeCopa Do Brasil
  • 8 May 2019Vila Nova 0–0 JuventudeCopa Do Brasil
  • 25 April 2019Juventude 0–0 Vila NovaCopa Do Brasil

Leading scorers: Vila Nova and Juventude

Vila Nova

GoalsAssists

  • Janderson109
  • André Luís92

Juventude

GoalsAssists

  • Raí105

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Vila Nova and Juventude drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Vila Nova at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Janderson 55' for Vila Nova, Lucas Alves 76' for Juventude, Eduardo Dos Santos 83' for Vila Nova, Safira 86' for Juventude. Sent off: João Pedro Vieira (Vila Nova) 62', Messias Rodrigues da Silva Júnior (Juventude) 72'. On expected goals it finished 1.41–1.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vila Nova a 24.2% chance to finish in the top two: 48.3% after a win, 13.9% after a draw, 3.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 13.9%, 10.3 points lower than before the match.

For Juventude the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 73.9% going in: 97.7% after a win, 80.9% after a draw, 49.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 80.9%, 7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Vila Nova v Juventude has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Vila Nova's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Vila Nova win36%▼ −4
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Juventude win35%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.