Botafogo
vs
Gremio
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Botafogo 3-2 Gremio.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Botafogo, 29% draw, 24% Gremio — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Botafogo 1.72, Gremio 0.90.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Botafogo vs Gremio
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botafogo at 47% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botafogo vs Gremio
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 2VitinhoD
- 3Arthur ChavesD
- 33L. MonzonD
- 13Alex TellesD
- 75HuguinhoM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 7Junior SantosM
- 88EdenilsonM
- 10A. MontoroM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 17WarlesonG
- 29PaulinhoD
- 21MarcalD
- 42Kadu SantosD
- 25AllanM
- 91D. AndradeM
- 34G. JustinoD
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 9Tiquinho SoaresF
- 1WevertonG
- 27Diego CaitoD
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 82WallaceD
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 7C. PavonM
- 10F. KrovinovicM
- 77J. CabralM
- 95Carlos ViniciusF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 31G. MenegonG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 18Joao PedroD
- 4Walter KannemannD
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 15Danilo BarbosaM
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
Form going into Botafogo vs Gremio
Botafogo
- D1-1RB Bragantino12 September 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Flamengo30 August 2026
- L2-3Atletico Paranaense24 August 2026
Gremio
- L1-2Vasco da Gama12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria7 September 2026
- W3-1Chapecoense30 August 2026
- L0-1away to RB Bragantino23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Botafogo | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 35 |
| 16 | Gremio | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Gremio
- 5 February 2026Gremio 5–3 BotafogoSerie A
- 22 November 2025Botafogo 3–2 GremioSerie A
- 24 September 2025Gremio 1–1 BotafogoSerie A
- 29 September 2024Botafogo 0–0 GremioSerie A
- 16 June 2024Gremio 1–2 BotafogoSerie A
- 9 November 2023Botafogo 3–4 GremioSerie A
Leading scorers: Botafogo and Gremio
Botafogo
- Danilo Santos7 goals2 assists
- Arthur Cabral7 goals1 assists
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.72 goals for Botafogo and 0.90 for Gremio; the game produced 3 and 2.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira 30' (Botafogo), Jovane Cabral 36' (Gremio), Álvaro Montoro 52' (Botafogo), Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira 79' (Botafogo), Gustavo Martins 88' (Gremio).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botafogo the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Botafogo against 0.9 for Gremio. Botafogo's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.37 for Gremio.