Al Ahly
vs
Abu Qair Semad
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Al Ahly 2-0 Abu Qair Semad.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Al Ahly, 29% draw, 22% Abu Qair Semad — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Al Ahly 1.64, Abu Qair Semad 0.73.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Al Ahly vs Abu Qair Semad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Ahly at 49% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Ahly vs Abu Qair Semad
Line-ups
- 1Mohamed El ShenawyG
- 12Akram TawfikD
- 5Hady ReyadD
- 2Yassin MareiD
- 28Karim FouadD
- 15Omar El SaeeyM
- 13Marwan AttiaM
- 25ZizoM
- 22Emam AshourM
- 17A. BencharkiM
- 9S. BenjdidaF
- 8Ahmed HashemD
- 7Taher MohamedF
- 24Tawfik MohamedF
- 19Mohamed Magdi KafshaM
- 31Mostafa ShobeirG
- 3A. DariD
- 14Hussein El ShahatM
- 30Mohamed HanyD
- 10M. BakrarF
- 1M. GeneshG
- 6M. AlaaD
- 20Ahmed AwadD
- 4M. DabashD
- 27Ahmed DaheshD
- 7Mohamed AshrafM
- 30Y. HamdiM
- 14R. MiladM
- 15O. IbrahimM
- 38Mohamed CamaraF
- 29Ali HusseinF
- 5Ahmed FayezD
- 8E. HamdiM
- 9Mahmoud Abou GoudaF
- 12I. AshrafD
- 24A. El GazarD
- 22Ahmed KhaledM
- 21Seif ShikaF
- 25Mohamed Zakaria ShikaG
- 13Glid OtangaM
Form going into Al Ahly vs Abu Qair Semad
Al Ahly
- D1-1away to El Mokawloon9 September 2026
- W1-0Smouha SC3 September 2026
- W2-0away to Masr28 August 2026
- W3-2Enppi23 August 2026
Abu Qair Semad
- L0-2away to Zamalek SC8 September 2026
- L0-2Al Ittihad Alexandria2 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pyramids FC27 August 2026
- W1-0National Bank of Egypt21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al Ahly | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 13 |
| 17 | Abu Qair Semad | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Ahly vs Abu Qair Semad
- 15 September 2026Al Ahly 2–0 Abu Qair SemadPremier League
- 21 November 2020Al Ahly 2–1 Abu Qair SemadCup
Leading scorers: Al Ahly and Abu Qair Semad
Al Ahly
- Zizo3 goals
- Marwan Attia1 goals1 assists
Abu Qair Semad
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.64 goals for Al Ahly and 0.73 for Abu Qair Semad; the game produced 2 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Zizo Sayed 16' (Al Ahly), Hussein El Shahat 90' (Al Ahly).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Ahly the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al Ahly against 0.73 for Abu Qair Semad. Al Ahly's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.58 for Abu Qair Semad.