Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse First League prediction & result
Final score: Botev Plovdiv 1-1 Dunav Ruse.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Botev Plovdiv, 24% draw, 25% Dunav Ruse — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Botev Plovdiv at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse
Line-ups
- 29D. NaumovG
- 4N. SoldoD
- 10A. ChandarovM
- 15B. KostovD
- 16V. VidolovM
- 19Mauro RodriguesF
- 30Franklin MascoteF
- 44E. UkakiD
- 77Lucas AraújoM
- 87S. PetrovD
- 90S. KaluF
- 22M. SengerD
- 14Carlos AlgarraM
- 20T. AwanyD
- 27B. HeinD
- 82V. MendesD
- 66C. MeottiF
- 17G. MilanovM
- 7Alberto SalidoM
- 11S. ShopovM
- 33G. KitanovG
- 2M. DilchovskiD
- 3B. ChorbadzhiyskiD
- 39Andre AlvesD
- 88D. TodorovD
- 10K. BoychevM
- 17N. FonkeuM
- 14R. ApostolovM
- 78Elisee SouM
- 9Álex ValiñoF
- 23Jordan Layn Saint-LouisM
- 19S. StefanovM
- 44V. VidakovićM
- 77A. SimeonovF
- 22S. PredevD
- 18I. KeïtaF
- 24S. GavrilovM
- 51I. BudinovD
- 5K. AntoniouD
- 6S. YovkovD
Form going into Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse
Botev Plovdiv
First League
- W5-2away to Lokomotiv Sofia30 October 2026
- L0-4away to CSKA 194823 October 2026
- W1-0Slavia Sofia10 October 2026
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia19 September 2026
Dunav Ruse
First League
- L0-1Levski Sofia31 October 2026
- W2-0Spartak Varna24 October 2026
- W3-2away to Septemvri Sofia11 October 2026
- D2-2Botev Vratsa19 September 2026
What these results say
- Botev Plovdiv won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Botev Plovdiv scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Botev Plovdiv had three goals or more.
- Dunav Ruse scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Dunav Ruse conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse
- 3 July 2020Botev Plovdiv 3–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 6 November 2019Dunav Ruse 1–2 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 21 July 2019Botev Plovdiv 3–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 2 March 2019Dunav Ruse 1–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 6 October 2018Botev Plovdiv 4–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
Leading scorers: Botev Plovdiv and Dunav Ruse
Botev Plovdiv
GoalsAssists
- C. Meotti10
Dunav Ruse
GoalsAssists
- I. Budinov11
- Andre Alves10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Botev Plovdiv and Dunav Ruse drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Botev Plovdiv at 51% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ehije Ukaki 84' for Botev Plovdiv, Ibrahim Keita 88' for Dunav Ruse.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Botev Plovdiv a 11.1% chance to finish in the top four: 14.1% after a win, 8.3% after a draw, 4.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 8.3%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.
For Dunav Ruse the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.2% going in: 14.7% after a win, 23.2% after a draw, 29.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 23.2%, 2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Botev Plovdiv v Dunav Ruse has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 54% / 24% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 51% / 24% / 25%: the biggest move is Botev Plovdiv's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Botev Plovdiv win51%▼ −3
- Draw24%=
- Dunav Ruse win25%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.