Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Septemvri Sofia 1-0 Lokomotiv Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Septemvri Sofia, 26% draw, 41% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Lokomotiv Sofia at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Line-ups
- 12V. IvanovG
- 4M. HristovD
- 25S. VulikićD
- 26V. OzornwaforD
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 17N. FontaineF
- 5Y. BaurenskiM
- 19pedrinhoD
- 11A. DzhamovF
- 29F. HerardF
- 27André Filipe Rio LiberalF
- 16V. MihaylovM
- 24Z. AtanasovM
- 13K. ÖnaşçıM
- 1A. RadkovG
- 28S. StoichkovF
- 23B. StoichkovF
- 7E. RibeiroF
- 18Pedro IgorF
- 10N. IlievM
- 99M. VelichkovG
- 6EirôD
- 91R. BidoungaD
- 42N. NeychevM
- 14A. LyaskovD
- 31K. StanoevM
- 8I. YordanovM
- 11A. TaouiF
- 16M. MedfaiM
- 29A. AralicaF
- 7S. DelevF
- 44B. KatsarovM
- 23O. OdukoD
- 20D. KostadinovM
- 77Caue CaruzoF
- 18Joyce Kati KatulondiF
- 3K. KostovD
- 26K. MiloshevM
- 9G. MinchevF
- 17M. PapazovF
Form going into Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
First League
- L1-2away to Arda Kardzhali2 November 2026
- L0-2away to Cherno More Varna27 October 2026
- L2-3Dunav Ruse11 October 2026
- L0-3Botev Plovdiv19 September 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia
First League
- L2-5Botev Plovdiv30 October 2026
- D1-1Botev Vratsa24 October 2026
- D1-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Spartak Varna20 September 2026
What these results say
- Septemvri Sofia did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Septemvri Sofia had three goals or more.
- Lokomotiv Sofia scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Septemvri Sofia | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 11 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia
- 27 April 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 17 March 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 3–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 29 August 2025Septemvri Sofia 1–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 20 May 2025Septemvri Sofia 0–2 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 8 December 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 1–2 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 12 August 2024Septemvri Sofia 0–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
Leading scorers: Septemvri Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
GoalsAssists
- André Filipe Rio Liberal11
- F. Herard10
- A. Dzhamov10
Lokomotiv Sofia
GoalsAssists
- S. Delev11
- D. Kostadinov10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Septemvri Sofia beat Lokomotiv Sofia 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Lokomotiv Sofia at 41% and given a win for Septemvri Sofia 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Pedro Ferreira 49' for Septemvri Sofia.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Septemvri Sofia a 77.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 66.6% after a win, 79.8% after a draw, 86.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.6%, 10.7 points lower than before the match.
For Lokomotiv Sofia the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 42.5% going in: 30.2% after a win, 44.6% after a draw, 54.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.7%, 12.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.