6 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Venezia vs Udinese Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice
Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Venezia 2-1 Udinese.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Venezia, 31% draw, 39% Udinese — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Udinese at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Pasquale Mazzocchi
51'
⚽Toma Bašićassist: Antoine Hainaut
53'
57'
⚽Matias Moreno (OG)
64'
🔁Jakub Piotrowskiout: Giorgi Chakvetadze
⚽Enrique Pérez Muñozassist: Pasquale Mazzocchi
65'
🔁Pasquale Mazzocchiout: Ridgeciano Haps
70'
74'
🔁James Abankwahout: Christian Kabasele
75'
🔁Nicolo Zanioloout: Unai Gómez
🔁John Yeboahout: Lion Lauberbach
84'
🔁Toma Bašićout: Thorir Johann Helgason
85'
88'
🔁Oumar Soletout: Lennon Miller
88'
🔁Jurgen Ekkelenkampout: Vakoun Bayo
90+5'
Matteo Palma

Match stats — Venezia vs Udinese

46%Possession54%
15Shots13
4On target5
3Corners7
1.62xG0.98

Goals against chances

Venezia2 from 1.62 xGabout what the chances were worth
Udinese1 from 0.98 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Venezia 3-5-2
  • 1F. StankovićG
  • 25R. HalhalD
  • 2M. MorenoD
  • 15Juan JesusD
  • 18A. HainautM
  • 71Kike PérezM
  • 19S. SohmM
  • 26T. BašićM
  • 70P. MazzocchiM
  • 10J. YeboahF
  • 45A. AdamsF
Substitutes
  • 3J. SchingtienneD
  • 14Thierry CorreiaD
  • 17A. Bella-KotchapD
  • 6G. BusioM
  • 30M. DagassoM
  • 32A. DuncanM
  • 8Lamine DaboM
  • 77Toni FernándezM
  • 5R. HapsD
Coach: D. Nicola
Udinese 3-4-2-1
  • 40M. OkoyeG
  • 14J. AbankwahD
  • 16M. PalmaD
  • 28O. SoletD
  • 23M. VojvodaM
  • 24J. PiotrowskiM
  • 8J. KarlströmM
  • 11H. KamaraM
  • 10N. ZanioloM
  • 32J. EkkelenkampM
  • 9K. DavisF
Substitutes
  • 93D. PadelliG
  • 45G. VinciatiF
  • 6Oier ZarragaM
  • 41B. MrozekG
  • 38L. MillerM
  • 4S. LovrićM
  • 27C. KabaseleD
  • 91L. JovanovićF
  • 46Unai GómezM
Coach: P. Zanetti

Form going into Venezia vs Udinese

Venezia

Serie A

  • L0-1away to Como1 November 2026
  • L0-2Inter28 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Genoa25 October 2026
  • W1-0Napoli17 October 2026

Udinese

Serie A

  • L2-5AS Roma31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Parma28 October 2026
  • L0-2AC Milan25 October 2026
  • L0-3Lecce18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 4 matches for Venezia had two goals or fewer.
  • Venezia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Venezia failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Udinese did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Udinese failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Udinese conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Venezia11209821-136
20Udinese111281225-135

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Venezia vs Udinese

  • 2 September 2026Udinese 2–1 VeneziaCoppa Italia
  • 1 February 2025Udinese 3–2 VeneziaSerie A
  • 30 October 2024Venezia 3–2 UdineseSerie A
  • 10 April 2022Venezia 1–2 UdineseSerie A
  • 27 August 2021Udinese 3–0 VeneziaSerie A

The full Venezia vs Udinese record →

The result against the call

Venezia beat Udinese 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Udinese at 39% and given a win for Venezia 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Toma Bašić 53' for Venezia, Matias Moreno (own goal) 57' for Udinese, Enrique Pérez Muñoz 65' for Venezia. On expected goals it finished 1.62–0.98.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Venezia a 75.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 69.2% after a win, 76.8% after a draw, 81.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.2%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.

For Udinese the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 48.6% going in: 39.7% after a win, 51.6% after a draw, 56.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.0%, 7.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Venezia v Udinese has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 30% / 27% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 30% / 31% / 39%: the biggest move is Udinese's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Venezia win30%=
  2. Draw31%▲ +4
  3. Udinese win39%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.