Boulogne vs Reims Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Boulogne 1-1 Reims.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Boulogne, 30% draw, 43% Reims — fair odds of 3.70, 3.33 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Reims at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Boulogne vs Reims
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99Blondy Rudolph Nna NoukeuG
- 20T. BruscoD
- 25A. KerriouD
- 15A. PinotD
- 8J. MartinM
- 11N. FatarM
- 22S. DuflosM
- 19N. BinetM
- 12J. BoyerM
- 10A. HbouchF
- 64T. EpaillyF
- 17B. BesicF
- 1X. LenogueG
- 29M. MionD
- 97Z. MocoM
- 4Jonathan KapengaD
- 28Sohan PaillardM
- 36M. SoumahM
- 18D. ThiamD
- 1T. HülsmannG
- 21J. MambukuD
- 28N. AhouononD
- 22S. KottoD
- 27D. GuindoD
- 46seydou dembeleM
- 6T. LeoniM
- 61C. KouranfalM
- 9M. DaramyM
- 8Y. FofanaF
- 10Y. El KachatiF
- 63A. ZohouriD
- 99S. SoumanoF
- 5John OtomewoD
- 12E. OmeragicG
- 19A. GadouF
- 30J. PatrickM
- 7T. DiarrassoubaF
- 53T. DeflorenneM
- 18Sergio AkiemeD
Form going into Boulogne vs Reims
Boulogne
Ligue 2
- W2-0away to Grenoble16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sochaux9 October 2026
Reims
Ligue 2
- W4-2Dijon16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Nantes10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Boulogne | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Reims | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Boulogne vs Reims
- 4 April 2026Reims 0–0 BoulogneLigue 2
- 28 October 2025Boulogne 2–6 ReimsLigue 2
- 16 July 2025Reims 1–0 BoulogneFriendlies Clubs
- 1 May 2012Reims 3–2 BoulogneLigue 2
- 14 January 2012Boulogne 0–0 ReimsLigue 2
- 15 April 2011Reims 4–1 BoulogneLigue 2
Leading scorers: Boulogne and Reims
Boulogne
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Reims
GoalsAssists
- Y. Fofana112
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Boulogne and Reims drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Reims at 43% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Sonny Duflos 35' for Boulogne, Yaya Fofana 84' for Reims. On expected goals it finished 1.14–0.40.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Boulogne a 21.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 14.5% after a win, 20.3% after a draw, 24.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 20.3%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.
For Reims the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 38.4% going in: 43.0% after a win, 38.3% after a draw, 31.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 38.3%.
Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Boulogne v Reims has moved
First published on 12 Oct at 26% / 29% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 27% / 30% / 43%: the biggest move is Reims's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Boulogne win27%▲ +1
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Reims win43%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.