26 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

Montpellier vs RED Star FC 93 Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier
Referee: Pierre Gaillouste
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Montpellier 2-1 RED Star FC 93.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Montpellier, 30% draw, 24% RED Star FC 93 — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Montpellier at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Montpellier98%Draw2%RED Star FC 930%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Noah Vidal
17'
Mamadou Camara
30'
42'
Dylan Durivaux
Yanis Zouaoui
42'
⚽Laciné Megnan-Pavéassist: Nicolas Pays
47'
51'
⚽Saîf-Eddine Khaouiassist: Matthieu Huard
52'
🔁Jovany Ikanga A Ngeleout: Kémo Cissé
52'
🔁Josué Escartinout: Elyaz Zidane
🔁Noah Vidalout: Daryll Benlahlou
53'
🔁Théo Chennahiout: Daylam Meddah
64'
🔁Laciné Megnan-Pavéout: Hichem Abderrebi
64'
66'
Matthieu Huard
70'
Dylan Durivaux
73'
🔁Saîf-Eddine Khaouiout: Idrissa Sabaly
73'
🔁Matthieu Huardout: Leonardo Daniel Ulineia Buta
81'
🔁Theo Magninout: Come Bianay Balcot
🔁Florian Tardieuout: Nordan Mukiele
85'
🔁Nicolas Paysout: Yassine Benhattab
85'
⚽Mamadou Camaraassist: Nordan Mukiele
88'

Match stats — Montpellier vs RED Star FC 93

53%Possession47%
6Shots14
3On target5
3Corners2
0.62xG1.09

Goals against chances

Montpellier2 from 0.62 xGmore than the chances were worth
RED Star FC 931 from 1.09 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Montpellier 4-2-3-1
  • 31S. NgapandouetnbuG
  • 3Naoufel El HannachD
  • 15J. LaporteD
  • 6Y. MouangaD
  • 28Y. ZouaouiD
  • 44T. ChennahiM
  • 5F. TardieuM
  • 18N. PaysM
  • 40N. Vidal-CartouxM
  • 9Lacine Megnan-PaveM
  • 11M. CamaraF
Substitutes
  • 32Hichem AbderrebiM
  • 90Gregory AyemM
  • 10Y. BenhattabM
  • 23Daryll BenlahlouF
  • 36Massaoly DiarraF
  • 50V. DžodićG
  • 27D. MeddahD
  • 19N. MukieleF
  • 77EversonM
Coach: Z. Camara
RED Star FC 93 4-2-3-1
  • 16G. PoussinG
  • 2T. MagninD
  • 20D. DurivauxD
  • 5J. EscartinD
  • 3M. HuardD
  • 19I. HalifaM
  • 6B. DangerM
  • 27G. KyeremehM
  • 10S. KhaouiM
  • 7D. DurandM
  • 23J. Ikanga A NgeleF
Substitutes
  • 25Leonardo ButaD
  • 21Idrissa SabalyM
  • 17S. RenelM
  • 45Cheick KonateM
  • 9I. DespotovicF
  • 11K. CisséF
  • 80C. Bianay BalcotD
  • 1Yanis Benchaouch MartyG
  • 4E. ZidaneD
Coach: D. Perrinelle

Form going into Montpellier vs RED Star FC 93

Montpellier

Ligue 2

  • W3-0away to Rodez19 October 2026
  • W2-0Grenoble9 October 2026

RED Star FC 93

Ligue 2

  • L0-1Saint Etienne17 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Clermont Foot10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Montpellier12732189+924
8RED Star FC 93125251417-317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Montpellier vs RED Star FC 93

  • 9 May 2026RED Star FC 93 1–1 MontpellierLigue 2
  • 9 August 2025Montpellier 1–1 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2

Leading scorers: Montpellier and RED Star FC 93

Montpellier

GoalsAssists

  • N. Pays52
  • Lacine Megnan-Pave42

RED Star FC 93

GoalsAssists

  • D. Durand50
  • J. Ikanga A Ngele42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Montpellier beat RED Star FC 93 2–1. The model had made a win for Montpellier its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Laciné Megnan-Pavé 47' for Montpellier, Saîf-Eddine Khaoui 51' for RED Star FC 93, Mamadou Camara 88' for Montpellier. Sent off: Dylan Durivaux (RED Star FC 93) 70'. On expected goals it finished 0.62–1.09.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Montpellier a 38.7% chance to finish in the top two: 44.2% after a win, 34.9% after a draw, 31.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.2%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.

For RED Star FC 93 the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 12.6% going in: 17.2% after a win, 13.1% after a draw, 9.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.8%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Montpellier v RED Star FC 93 has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 43% / 31% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 30% / 24%: the biggest move is Montpellier's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Montpellier win46%▲ +3
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. RED Star FC 93 win24%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.