Metz vs PAU Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Metz 1-3 PAU.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Metz, 25% draw, 29% PAU — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Metz at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Metz vs PAU
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. FischerG
- 70B. SarrD
- 42C. DevenishD
- 5J. RuizD
- 4U. MboulaD
- 98I. MohamedM
- 33Abdourahmane MbodjM
- 8J. DeminguetM
- 10T. SavanierM
- 39B. SongM
- 22N. MbalaF
- 12A. TouréM
- 38H. KadamaniM
- 2M. ColinD
- 88A. Agne BaF
- 3F. MiguelD
- 18B. MunongoM
- 21J. PandoreF
- 7Ibou SanéF
- 61P. SyG
- 1B. MaubleuG
- 39M. TourraineD
- 29G. PaquiezD
- 23A. BriançonD
- 88A. BambaD
- 97A. AbdallahD
- 6C. FallM
- 21J. BenetM
- 5L. RajotM
- 7H. BenaliF
- 18J. SebasF
- 10B. BrahimiM
- 4A. DodoteD
- 27L. GadegbekuM
- 11A. LefebvreF
- 9B. LeyeF
- 22R. BahengD
- 19T. SaettelF
- 8S. BasseD
- 30E. SallesG
Form going into Metz vs PAU
Metz
Ligue 2
- D1-1away to Dunkerque23 October 2026
- W3-2Sochaux17 October 2026
- L2-4away to Dijon12 October 2026
PAU
Ligue 2
- W2-1Grenoble23 October 2026
- W2-1away to Guingamp16 October 2026
- W3-2Laval9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Metz | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 17 |
| 5 | PAU | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Metz vs PAU
- 26 April 2025PAU 2–1 MetzLigue 2
- 4 January 2025Metz 0–0 PAULigue 2
- 8 April 2023PAU 1–1 MetzLigue 2
- 1 October 2022Metz 1–0 PAULigue 2
Leading scorers: Metz and PAU
Metz
GoalsAssists
- P. Fall81
- J. Deminguet33
PAU
GoalsAssists
- B. Leye41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
PAU won 3–1 at Metz. The model had leaned towards a win for Metz at 46% and given a win for PAU 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Cheikh Fall 11' for PAU, Cheikh Fall 64' for PAU, Hacene Benali 68' for PAU, Teji Savanier (penalty) 75' for Metz. On expected goals it finished 1.99–2.11.
How the call on Metz v PAU has moved
First published on 16 Oct at 53% / 25% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 46% / 25% / 29%: the biggest move is Metz's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Metz win46%▼ −7
- Draw25%=
- PAU win29%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.