30 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Grenoble vs Dijon Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade des Alpes, Grenoble
Referee: Chamel, Soulaimane
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Grenoble 1-3 Dijon.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Grenoble, 27% draw, 39% Dijon — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dijon at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Grenoble0%Draw4%Dijon96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Mael Corboz
10'
16'
⚽Júlio Tavaresassist: Jordan Marié
45'
🔁Paul Bellonout: Hugo Vargas Ríos
50'
⚽Brandon Nsimba Ndeziassist: Adel Lembezat
🔁Yohann Magninout: Baptiste Mouazan
58'
🔁Leonardo Cerriout: Moussa Djitté
58'
63'
🔁Ange Lagoout: Tyris Dong
63'
🔁Boubacar Dialloout: Moussa Faty
🔁Nesta Zahuiout: Yvann Macon
65'
🔁Christ-Owen Kouassiout: Samba Lele Diba
66'
71'
Lenny Lacroix
75'
🔁Adel Lembezatout: Samy Chouchane
79'
🔁Júlio Tavaresout: Yanis Barka
🔁Lucas Bernadouout: Jean-Guy Akpa Akpro
83'
⚽Ugo Bonnet
83'
90+5'
⚽Yanis Barkaassist: Samy Chouchane
Clement Vidal
90+7'

Match stats — Grenoble vs Dijon

53%Possession47%
21Shots13
8On target4
7Corners2
1.8xG2.5

Goals against chances

Grenoble1 from 1.80 xGless than the chances were worth
Dijon3 from 2.50 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Grenoble 5-3-2
  • 20A. OllieroG
  • 19N. ZahuiD
  • 21Owen KouassiD
  • 5C. VidalD
  • 3F. LimouriD
  • 27M. XantippeD
  • 8L. BernadouM
  • 6Y. MagninM
  • 14M. CorbozM
  • 17L. CerriF
  • 12U. BonnetF
Substitutes
  • 25T. BorneG
  • 37M. BechikhF
  • 92J. Akpa AkproM
  • 2M. DjittéF
  • 50C. DresselM
  • 30S. DibaM
  • 97Y. MaçonD
  • 10B. MouazanM
  • 48S. NiakatéD
Coach: O. Frapolli
Dijon 4-1-3-2
  • 16P. DelecroixG
  • 93I. BouleghchaD
  • 6W. DioufD
  • 23L. LacroixD
  • 75Boubacar DialloD
  • 14J. MariéM
  • 8P. BellonM
  • 17A. LembezatM
  • 18B. NdeziM
  • 11Júlio TavaresF
  • 90A. LagoF
Substitutes
  • 20H. Vargas-RíosM
  • 42Y. AkaD
  • 15Axel BargainD
  • 10Y. BarkaF
  • 21Samy ChouchaneM
  • 9T. DongF
  • 31M. FatyD
  • 46Ilan Marie-RoseG
  • 29A. NtamackF
Coach: B. Ridira

Form going into Grenoble vs Dijon

Grenoble

Ligue 2

  • L1-2away to PAU23 October 2026
  • L0-2Boulogne16 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Montpellier9 October 2026

Dijon

Ligue 2

  • L1-2Rodez24 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Reims16 October 2026
  • W4-2Metz12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Grenoble123271322-911
6Dijon125342119+218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Grenoble vs Dijon

  • 4 March 2023Dijon 1–0 GrenobleLigue 2
  • 12 November 2022Grenoble 0–0 DijonLigue 2
  • 2 April 2022Dijon 1–0 GrenobleLigue 2
  • 23 October 2021Grenoble 1–2 DijonLigue 2
  • 6 July 2021Dijon 1–1 GrenobleFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 May 2011Dijon 2–1 GrenobleLigue 2

Leading scorers: Grenoble and Dijon

Grenoble

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Dijon

GoalsAssists

  • Júlio Tavares51
  • Y. Barka40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dijon won 3–1 at Grenoble. The model had made a win for Dijon its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Júlio Tavares 16' for Dijon, Brandon Nsimba Ndezi 50' for Dijon, Ugo Bonnet 83' for Grenoble, Yanis Barka 90+5' for Dijon. On expected goals it finished 1.80–2.50.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Grenoble a 42.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 34.7% after a win, 44.0% after a draw, 49.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.1%, 6.2 points higher than before the match.

For Dijon the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 6.4% going in: 4.1% after a win, 6.8% after a draw, 8.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.1%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.