30 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Laval vs Boulogne Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Francis Le Basser, Laval
Referee: Faouzi Benchabane
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Laval 1-0 Boulogne.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Laval, 31% draw, 35% Boulogne — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Boulogne at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Laval98%Draw2%Boulogne0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Layousse Samb
28'
⚽Mathys Houdayerassist: Layousse Samb
34'
Teddy Bouriaud
37'
41'
Sonny Duflos
43'
Demba Thiam
🔁Layousse Sambout: Jules Gaudin
45'
45'
🔁Theo Epaillyout: Jonathan Kapenga
61'
🔁Jonas Martinout: Joffrey Bultel
61'
🔁Sonny Duflosout: Zoran Christophe Moco
71'
🔁Nolan Binetout: Martin Lecolier
🔁Aboubakary Kanteout: Ethan Clavreul
71'
🔁Alessio Beaudouinout: Sacha Mellier
72'
🔁Teddy Bouriaudout: Cyril Mandouki
72'
83'
🔁Julien Boyerout: Mathieu Mion
🔁Mathys Houdayerout: Julien Maggiotti
88'
Trevis Dago
90+1'

Match stats — Laval vs Boulogne

62%Possession38%
10Shots9
2On target2
3Corners4
1.02xG0.54

Goals against chances

Laval1 from 1.02 xGabout what the chances were worth
Boulogne0 from 0.54 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Laval 4-3-1-2
  • 1M. HautboisG
  • 23E. MoutonD
  • 21Alessio BeaudouinD
  • 3W. BiandaD
  • 35Layousse SambD
  • 6S. SannaM
  • 8T. BouriaudM
  • 29M. SidibeM
  • 31M. HoudayerM
  • 11T. DagoF
  • 28A. KantéF
Substitutes
  • 18A. LôD
  • 7Chafik GourichyM
  • 22J. GaudinD
  • 20E. ClavreulM
  • 5J. MaggiottiM
  • 14C. MandoukiM
  • 33S. MellierM
  • 34A. MoussaouiF
  • 30M. SamassaG
Coach: David Vignes
Boulogne 5-3-2
  • 99Blondy Rudolph Nna NoukeuG
  • 11N. FatarD
  • 18D. ThiamD
  • 25A. KerriouD
  • 15A. PinotD
  • 12J. BoyerD
  • 22S. DuflosM
  • 8J. MartinM
  • 19N. BinetM
  • 10A. HbouchF
  • 64T. EpaillyF
Substitutes
  • 21A. PlatretD
  • 17B. BesicF
  • 14J. BultelM
  • 9M. LecolierF
  • 1X. LenogueG
  • 29M. MionD
  • 97Z. MocoM
  • 4Jonathan KapengaD
  • 28Sohan PaillardM
Coach: F. Dagneaux

Form going into Laval vs Boulogne

Laval

Ligue 2

  • L0-1away to Nancy23 October 2026
  • D3-3Clermont Foot16 October 2026
  • L2-3away to PAU9 October 2026

Boulogne

Ligue 2

  • D1-1Reims26 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Grenoble16 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Sochaux9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Laval122371423-99
12Boulogne12273108+213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Laval vs Boulogne

  • 9 May 2026Laval 2–1 BoulogneLigue 2
  • 12 September 2025Boulogne 1–2 LavalLigue 2
  • 25 April 2022Laval 1–0 BoulogneLigue 3
  • 3 December 2021Boulogne 1–2 LavalLigue 3
  • 20 April 2021Boulogne 1–0 LavalLigue 3
  • 20 November 2020Laval 0–0 BoulogneLigue 3

Leading scorers: Laval and Boulogne

Laval

GoalsAssists

  • M. Houdayer40

Boulogne

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Laval beat Boulogne 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Boulogne at 35% and given a win for Laval 34%. The goal: Mathys Houdayer 34' for Laval. Sent off: Demba Thiam (Boulogne) 43'. On expected goals it finished 1.02–0.54.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Laval a 62.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 55.6% after a win, 64.6% after a draw, 69.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.6%, 7.1 points lower than before the match.

For Boulogne the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 22.8% going in: 16.6% after a win, 22.6% after a draw, 27.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.7%, 4.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Laval v Boulogne has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 34% / 31% / 35%: the biggest move is Laval's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Laval win34%▼ −4
  2. Draw31%▲ +1
  3. Boulogne win35%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.