Chelsea vs Hull City Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Chelsea 2-2 Hull City.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Chelsea, 29% draw, 26% Hull City — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Chelsea at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chelsea vs Hull City
Line-ups
- 1E. MartínezG
- 3W. FofanaD
- 6L. ColwillD
- 21J. HatoD
- 7Pedro NetoM
- 24R. JamesM
- 45R. LaviaM
- 27M. GustoM
- 10C. PalmerM
- 17M. RogersM
- 9João PedroF
- 11J. Bynoe-GittensF
- 5M. LacroixD
- 18D. WelbeckF
- 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
- 39M. PendersG
- 29Pep ChavarríaD
- 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
- 4V. BarcoM
- 41EstêvãoF
- 19K. TzolakisG
- 2L. CoyleD
- 6S. AjayiD
- 15J. EganD
- 32N. MendyD
- 3R. GilesD
- 10M. BelloumiM
- 25M. CrooksM
- 27R. SlaterM
- 21E. StroudM
- 9O. McBurnieF
- 23M. TargettD
- 7S. ThomasF
- 18B. Norton-CuffyD
- 29L. Gourna-DouathM
- 42T. IroegbunamM
- 47R. VazF
- 22L. HerringtonD
- 50M. ChoF
- 12D. PhillipsG
Form going into Chelsea vs Hull City
Chelsea
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Arsenal6 September 2026
- W4-3Brighton30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham24 August 2026
Hull City
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Aston Villa5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Coventry29 August 2026
- W2-0Manchester United22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 16 |
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chelsea vs Hull City
- 13 February 2026Hull City 0–4 ChelseaFA Cup
- 25 January 2020Hull City 1–2 ChelseaFA Cup
- 16 February 2018Chelsea 4–0 Hull CityFA Cup
- 22 January 2017Chelsea 2–0 Hull CityPremier League
- 1 October 2016Hull City 0–2 ChelseaPremier League
Leading scorers: Chelsea and Hull City
Chelsea
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro53
- M. Rogers51
- Pedro Neto31
Hull City
GoalsAssists
- M. Belloumi32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Chelsea and Hull City drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Chelsea at 45% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Morgan Rogers 7' for Chelsea, Mohamed Belloumi 28' for Hull City, Mohamed Belloumi 34' for Hull City, João Pedro 66' for Chelsea.
How the call on Chelsea v Hull City has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Hull City's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Chelsea win45%▲ +2
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Hull City win26%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.