Chelsea vs Hull City Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Chelsea 2-2 Hull City.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Chelsea, 29% draw, 26% Hull City — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chelsea at 45% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chelsea vs Hull City
Line-ups
- 1E. MartínezG
- 3W. FofanaD
- 6L. ColwillD
- 21J. HatoD
- 7Pedro NetoM
- 24R. JamesM
- 45R. LaviaM
- 27M. GustoM
- 10C. PalmerM
- 17M. RogersM
- 9João PedroF
- 11J. Bynoe-GittensF
- 5M. LacroixD
- 18D. WelbeckF
- 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
- 39M. PendersG
- 29Pep ChavarríaD
- 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
- 4V. BarcoM
- 41EstêvãoF
- 19K. TzolakisG
- 2L. CoyleD
- 6S. AjayiD
- 15J. EganD
- 32N. MendyD
- 3R. GilesD
- 10M. BelloumiM
- 25M. CrooksM
- 27R. SlaterM
- 21E. StroudM
- 9O. McBurnieF
- 23M. TargettD
- 7S. ThomasF
- 18B. Norton-CuffyD
- 29L. Gourna-DouathM
- 42T. IroegbunamM
- 47R. VazF
- 22L. HerringtonD
- 50M. ChoF
- 12D. PhillipsG
Form going into Chelsea vs Hull City
Chelsea
- L1-2away to Arsenal6 September 2026
- W4-3Brighton30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham24 August 2026
Hull City
- D0-0Aston Villa5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Coventry29 August 2026
- W2-0Manchester United22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 7 |
| 4 | Hull City | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chelsea vs Hull City
- 12 September 2026Chelsea 2–2 Hull CityPremier League
- 13 February 2026Hull City 0–4 ChelseaFA Cup
- 25 January 2020Hull City 1–2 ChelseaFA Cup
- 16 February 2018Chelsea 4–0 Hull CityFA Cup
- 22 January 2017Chelsea 2–0 Hull CityPremier League
- 1 October 2016Hull City 0–2 ChelseaPremier League
Leading scorers: Chelsea and Hull City
Chelsea
- João Pedro3 goals3 assists
- M. Rogers3 goals1 assists
- C. Palmer2 goals2 assists
Hull City
- M. Belloumi2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.