18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Bournemouth vs Sunderland Premier League prediction & result

Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
Referee: Craig Pawson
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Bournemouth 2-0 Sunderland.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Bournemouth, 27% draw, 29% Sunderland — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bournemouth at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bournemouth99%Draw1%Sunderland0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Marcus Tavernierassist: Francisco Evanilson
5'
17'
Kevin Danso
Antonio Silva
26'
40'
Omar Alderete
Lewis Cook
45+6'
⚽Francisco Evanilson
48'
59'
🔁Timur Tutierovout: Habib Diarra
59'
🔁Omar Aldereteout: Luke O'Nien
🔁Lewis Cookout: Justin Kluivert
62'
65'
Chris Rigg
65'
🔁Chris Riggout: Jules Ahoka
Ryan Christie
79'
🔁Francisco Evanilsonout: Álvaro Rodríguez
79'
🔁Marcus Tavernierout: Amine Adli
79'
🔁Tyler Adamsout: Bafode Diakite
89'
🔁Rayan Vitor Simplício Rochaout: Ben Gannon-Doak
89'

Match stats — Bournemouth vs Sunderland

65%Possession35%
29Shots3
6On target0
5Corners3
4.4xG0.13

Goals against chances

Bournemouth2 from 4.40 xGless than the chances were worth
Sunderland0 from 0.13 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
  • 1Đ. PetrovićG
  • 15A. SmithD
  • 5J. HillD
  • 14António SilvaD
  • 3A. TruffertD
  • 12T. AdamsM
  • 10R. ChristieM
  • 37RayanM
  • 4L. CookM
  • 16M. TavernierM
  • 9EvanilsonF
Substitutes
  • 7D. BrooksM
  • 11B. DoakF
  • 21A. AdliF
  • 24Juanlu SánchezM
  • 19J. KluivertF
  • 18B. DiakitéD
  • 6J. SolerD
  • 20M. Di GregorioG
  • 30Á. RodríguezF
Coach: M. Rose
Sunderland 4-2-3-1
  • 22R. RoefsG
  • 20N. MukieleD
  • 4K. DansoD
  • 15O. AldereteD
  • 17ReinildoD
  • 34G. XhakaM
  • 27N. SadikiM
  • 32T. HumeM
  • 11C. RiggM
  • 28E. Le FéeM
  • 57Timur TuterovF
Substitutes
  • 19H. DiarraM
  • 29Jules AhokaM
  • 39M. FofanaF
  • 10N. AnguloF
  • 7C. TalbiF
  • 6D. MethalieD
  • 13L. O'NienM
  • 31M. EllborgG
  • 50J. AnguloF
Coach: R. Le Bris

Form going into Bournemouth vs Sunderland

Bournemouth

Premier League

  • L1-5away to Chelsea10 October 2026

Sunderland

Premier League

  • L0-2Brighton10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Bournemouth104331614+215
19Sunderland10226817-98

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Sunderland

  • 28 February 2026Bournemouth 1–1 SunderlandPremier League
  • 29 November 2025Sunderland 3–2 BournemouthPremier League
  • 29 April 2017Sunderland 0–1 BournemouthPremier League
  • 5 November 2016Bournemouth 1–2 SunderlandPremier League
  • 23 January 2016Sunderland 1–1 BournemouthPremier League
  • 19 September 2015Bournemouth 2–0 SunderlandPremier League

The full Bournemouth vs Sunderland record →

Leading scorers: Bournemouth and Sunderland

Bournemouth

GoalsAssists

  • Evanilson54
  • M. Tavernier50

Sunderland

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bournemouth beat Sunderland 2–0. The model had made a win for Bournemouth its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Marcus Tavernier 5' for Bournemouth, Francisco Evanilson 48' for Bournemouth. Sent off: Kevin Danso (Sunderland) 17'. On expected goals it finished 4.40–0.13.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bournemouth a 23.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 17.7% after a win, 24.4% after a draw, 30.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.7%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.

For Sunderland the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 28.7% going in: 21.6% after a win, 27.8% after a draw, 33.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.1%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.