18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Brighton vs Crystal Palace Premier League prediction & result

Amex Stadium, Brighton
Referee: Robert Jones
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Brighton 5-0 Crystal Palace.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% Brighton, 22% draw, 17% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Brighton at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jaydee Canvot (OG)
4'
⚽Diego Gomezassist: Olivier Boscagli
7'
⚽Yasin Ayariassist: Charalampos Kostoulas
10'
Pascal Groß
29'
45'
🔁Quinten Timberout: Dwight McNeil
⚽Charalampos Kostoulas
49'
51'
Daichi Kamada
53'
🔁Honest Ahanorout: Jefferson Lerma
61'
🔁Jörgen Strand Larsenout: Jean-Philippe Mateta
61'
🔁Yeremy Pinoout: Eddie Nketiah
Chema Andrés
64'
🔁Pascal Großout: Jack Hinshelwood
71'
🔁Charalampos Kostoulasout: Georginio Rutter
71'
81'
🔁Daichi Kamadaout: Will Hughes
🔁Olivier Boscagliout: Jaouen Hadjam
81'
🔁Yasin Ayariout: Malick Yalcouyé
81'
⚽Jack Hinshelwood
84'
🔁Lewis Dunkout: Michael Svoboda
90'

Match stats — Brighton vs Crystal Palace

57%Possession43%
17Shots5
9On target1
8Corners5
2.02xG0.77

Goals against chances

Brighton5 from 2.02 xGmore than the chances were worth
Crystal Palace0 from 0.77 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Brighton 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. VerbruggenG
  • 24F. KadıoğluD
  • 44L. VuškovićD
  • 5L. DunkD
  • 21O. BoscagliD
  • 13P. GroßM
  • 14José María Andrés BaixauliM
  • 25D. GómezM
  • 26Y. AyariM
  • 29M. De CuyperM
  • 19C. KostoulasF
Substitutes
  • 35M. YalcouyéM
  • 33M. O'RileyM
  • 15I. OsmanF
  • 10G. RutterF
  • 8J. HinshelwoodM
  • 30M. SvobodaD
  • 20CostinhaD
  • 3J. HadjamD
  • 23J. SteeleG
Coach: F. Hürzeler
Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1
  • 44W. BenítezG
  • 6J. CanvotD
  • 26C. RichardsD
  • 21H. AhanorD
  • 25A. KhalailiM
  • 20A. WhartonM
  • 23Q. TimberM
  • 3T. MitchellM
  • 18D. KamadaM
  • 10Yeremy PinoM
  • 22J. Strand LarsenF
Substitutes
  • 9E. NketiahF
  • 7I. SarrF
  • 14J. MatetaF
  • 24D. OsorioM
  • 11D. McNeilF
  • 19W. HughesM
  • 8J. LermaM
  • 30Óscar MinguezaD
  • 31R. MatthewsG
Coach: P. Sage

Form going into Brighton vs Crystal Palace

Brighton

Premier League

  • W2-0away to Sunderland10 October 2026

Crystal Palace

Premier League

  • W3-1Nottingham Forest11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Brighton10712267+1922
20Crystal Palace102171024-147

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Brighton vs Crystal Palace

  • 8 February 2026Brighton 0–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
  • 9 November 2025Crystal Palace 0–0 BrightonPremier League
  • 5 April 2025Crystal Palace 2–1 BrightonPremier League
  • 15 December 2024Brighton 1–3 Crystal PalacePremier League
  • 3 February 2024Brighton 4–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
  • 21 December 2023Crystal Palace 1–1 BrightonPremier League

The full Brighton vs Crystal Palace record →

Leading scorers: Brighton and Crystal Palace

Brighton

GoalsAssists

  • P. Groß44
  • C. Kostoulas32

Crystal Palace

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Brighton beat Crystal Palace 5–0. The model had made a win for Brighton its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jaydee Canvot (own goal) 4' for Brighton, Diego Gomez 7' for Brighton, Yasin Ayari 10' for Brighton, Charalampos Kostoulas 49' for Brighton, Jack Hinshelwood 84' for Brighton. On expected goals it finished 2.02–0.77.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Brighton a 65.6% chance to finish in the top four: 68.5% after a win, 62.4% after a draw, 57.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.5%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.

For Crystal Palace the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.6% going in: 20.5% after a win, 24.3% after a draw, 27.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.2%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Brighton v Crystal Palace has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 55% / 24% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 61% / 22% / 17%: the biggest move is Brighton's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Brighton win61%▲ +6
  2. Draw22%▼ −2
  3. Crystal Palace win17%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.