18 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Premier League prediction & result

City Ground, Nottingham
Referee: Michael Oliver
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Arsenal.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Nottingham Forest, 26% draw, 55% Arsenal — fair odds of 5.26, 3.85 and 1.82.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arsenal at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nottingham Forest0%Draw2%Arsenal98%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Neco Williams
17'
45'
🔁Eberechi Ezeout: Noni Madueke
53'
Noni Madueke
66'
🔁Ben Whiteout: Jurriën Timber
66'
🔁Kai Havertzout: Viktor Gyökeres
66'
🔁Bruno Guimarãesout: Mikel Merino
🔁Dan Ndoyeout: Arnaud Kalimuendo
73'
🔁Nicolás Domínguezout: Ibrahim Sangaré
74'
80'
⚽Noni Maduekeassist: Declan Rice
🔁Jair Cunhaout: Chris Wood
85'
🔁James Mcateeout: Callum Hudson-Odoi
85'

Match stats — Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal

26%Possession74%
14Shots9
2On target1
8Corners6
0.79xG1.09

Goals against chances

Nottingham Forest0 from 0.79 xGless than the chances were worth
Arsenal1 from 1.09 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1
  • 26M. SelsG
  • 23JairD
  • 2O. DiomandeD
  • 5MurilloD
  • 27D. MuñozM
  • 24J. McAteeM
  • 21X. SchlagerM
  • 3N. WilliamsM
  • 8N. DomínguezM
  • 14D. NdoyeM
  • 19L. DelapF
Substitutes
  • 7C. Hudson-OdoiF
  • 22R. YatesM
  • 15A. KalimuendoF
  • 9C. WoodF
  • 12JohnG
  • 25L. NetzD
  • 31N. MilenkovićD
  • 34O. AinaD
  • 6I. SangaréM
Coach: O. Glasner
Arsenal 4-2-3-1
  • 1David RayaG
  • 4B. WhiteD
  • 15E. KonsaD
  • 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
  • 33R. CalafioriD
  • 41D. RiceM
  • 39Bruno GuimarãesM
  • 7B. SakaM
  • 8M. ØdegaardM
  • 10E. EzeM
  • 29K. HavertzF
Substitutes
  • 3Cristhian MosqueraD
  • 12J. TimberD
  • 49M. Lewis-SkellyD
  • 23Mikel MerinoM
  • 56M. DowmanF
  • 36Martín ZubimendiM
  • 14V. GyökeresF
  • 30I. MeslierG
  • 20N. MaduekeF
Coach: Mikel Arteta

Form going into Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal

Nottingham Forest

Premier League

  • L1-3away to Crystal Palace11 October 2026

Arsenal

Premier League

  • W2-1Leeds10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Nottingham Forest10235913-49
1Arsenal10901155+1027

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal

  • 17 January 2026Nottingham Forest 0–0 ArsenalPremier League
  • 13 September 2025Arsenal 3–0 Nottingham ForestPremier League
  • 26 February 2025Nottingham Forest 0–0 ArsenalPremier League
  • 23 November 2024Arsenal 3–0 Nottingham ForestPremier League
  • 30 January 2024Nottingham Forest 1–2 ArsenalPremier League
  • 12 August 2023Arsenal 2–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League

The full Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal record →

Leading scorers: Nottingham Forest and Arsenal

Nottingham Forest

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Arsenal

GoalsAssists

  • K. Havertz30
  • M. Ødegaard30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Arsenal won 1–0 at Nottingham Forest. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Arsenal at 55%. The goal: Noni Madueke 80' for Arsenal. On expected goals it finished 0.79–1.09.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nottingham Forest a 18.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.1% after a win, 18.1% after a draw, 19.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.5%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

For Arsenal the question was the chance to win the league, 30.5% going in: 32.9% after a win, 26.8% after a draw, 25.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.9%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Nottingham Forest v Arsenal has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 24% / 29% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 19% / 26% / 55%: the biggest move is Arsenal's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Nottingham Forest win19%▼ −5
  2. Draw26%▼ −3
  3. Arsenal win55%▲ +8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.