18 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Baltika vs FC Rostov Premier League prediction & result

Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad
Referee: Evgeni Bulanov
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Baltika 0-0 FC Rostov.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Baltika, 28% draw, 22% FC Rostov — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Baltika at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Baltika5%Draw93%FC Rostov2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Eduardo Andersonout: Sergey Varatynov
60'
🔁Egor Golenkovout: Maksim Petrov
60'
62'
🔁Ivan Komarovout: Ronaldo
🔁Brayan Gilout: Chinonso Offor
74'
🔁Eldar Ćivićout: Mikhail Ryadno
74'
77'
Danila Prokhin
83'
🔁Olakunle Olusegunout: Imran Aznaurov
83'
🔁Timur Suleymanovout: Anton Shamonin
🔁Konstantin Shiltsovout: Stefan Kovač
90'

Match stats — Baltika vs FC Rostov

41%Possession59%
10Shots10
1On target2
4Corners7
0.59xG0.93

Goals against chances

Baltika0 from 0.59 xGless than the chances were worth
FC Rostov0 from 0.93 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Baltika 5-3-2
  • 1E. LatyshonokG
  • 22M. BeveevD
  • 21E. AndersonD
  • 24L. MouyokoloD
  • 4N. GassamaD
  • 77E. ĆivićD
  • 10I. PetrovM
  • 26I. BelikovM
  • 7K. ShiltsovM
  • 69E. GolenkovF
  • 91B. GilF
Substitutes
  • 3I. KirschD
  • 42V. PospelovM
  • 68M. RyadnoD
  • 98German IvaD
  • 14S. KovačM
  • 81I. KukushkinG
  • 44E. LyubakovG
  • 18F. MoufiD
  • 2S. VaratynovD
Coach: A. Talalaev
FC Rostov 4-3-3
  • 84A. PetrovG
  • 4V. MelekhinD
  • 3O. SakoD
  • 40Ygor NogueiraD
  • 87A. LangovichD
  • 8A. MironovM
  • 27D. ProkhinM
  • 18K. KuchaevM
  • 10I. KomarovF
  • 99T. SuleymanovF
  • 6O. OlusegunF
Substitutes
  • 78D. ChistyakovD
  • 34D. GolikovG
  • 26D. KhlusevichD
  • 5Y. MikhaylovM
  • 16M. MukhinM
  • 7RonaldoF
  • 22D. SemenchukD
  • 91Anton ShamoninF
  • 21D. ShantaliyM
Coach: D. Kirichenko

Form going into Baltika vs FC Rostov

Baltika

Premier League

  • D0-0away to Akhmat11 October 2026

FC Rostov

Premier League

  • W1-0Akron9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Baltika144551715+217
6FC Rostov145451819-119

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Baltika vs FC Rostov

  • 7 March 2026FC Rostov 1–1 BaltikaPremier League
  • 21 September 2025Baltika 0–0 FC RostovPremier League
  • 19 May 2024FC Rostov 2–1 BaltikaPremier League
  • 2 May 2024FC Rostov 0–1 BaltikaCup
  • 16 September 2023Baltika 2–2 FC RostovPremier League

Leading scorers: Baltika and FC Rostov

Baltika

GoalsAssists

  • B. Gil51

FC Rostov

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Baltika and FC Rostov drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Baltika at 50% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.59–0.93.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Baltika a 8.8% chance to finish in the top four: 10.4% after a win, 7.3% after a draw, 4.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.3%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.

For FC Rostov the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 26.1% going in: 18.5% after a win, 23.0% after a draw, 29.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 23.0%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Baltika v FC Rostov has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 28% / 22%: the biggest move is Baltika's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Baltika win50%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. FC Rostov win22%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.