18 October 2026, 17:15 UTC

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Jerusalem Ligat Ha'al prediction & result

Toto Turner Stadium
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Final score: Hapoel Beer Sheva 2-1 Hapoel Jerusalem.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% Hapoel Beer Sheva, 21% draw, 15% Hapoel Jerusalem — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hapoel Beer Sheva98%Draw2%Hapoel Jerusalem0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
⚽Vitalie Damașcanassist: Christ Junior Tiehi
🔁Mohamad Abu Rumiout: Javon East
45'
🔁Eilel Peretzout: Lucas de Souza Ventura
45'
🔁Lucas de Souza Venturaout: Forson Amankwah
53'
•Adrián Ugarriza
58'
63'
🔁Vitalie Damașcanout: Zuberu Sharani
🔁Hamode Kanaanout: Igor Zlatanović
70'
72'
Ofek nadir
73'
🔁N. Vrasanaout: Li On Mizrahi
⚽Igor Zlatanović
74'
77'
andrew idoko
79'
🔁Ilay Madmonout: Hamza Mohammed
79'
🔁andrew idokoout: nati shafrau
82'
Ofek nadir
⚽Igor Zlatanović (pen)
84'
Adrián Ugarriza
85'
85'
omer agvadish
Ofir Davidzada
85'
🔁Adrián Ugarrizaout: Amit Ohana
90+6'

Match stats — Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Jerusalem

73%Possession27%
17Shots5
4On target3
6Corners1
2.46xG0.74

Goals against chances

Hapoel Beer Sheva2 from 2.46 xGabout what the chances were worth
Hapoel Jerusalem1 from 0.74 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hapoel Beer Sheva 4-3-3
  • 1O. MarcianoG
  • 27Y. StoyanovD
  • 4M. VítorD
  • 12I. RotmanD
  • 13O. DavidzadaD
  • 7E. PeretzM
  • 28N. YehoshuaM
  • 8M. Kna'anM
  • 45M. Abu RumiF
  • 90A. UgarrizaF
  • 11A. GanahF
Substitutes
  • 17A. ForsonM
  • 20J. EastF
  • 44D. DiopD
  • 2G. MizrahiD
  • 19A. OhanaF
  • 5Pedro AmadorD
  • 34M. WolffG
  • 66I. ZlatanovićF
  • 25Lucas VenturaM
Coach: R. Kojok
Hapoel Jerusalem 4-4-2
  • 55N. ZamirG
  • 16O. AgvadishD
  • 21Hilay Sharabi MelmanD
  • 3N. MalmudD
  • 20O. NadirD
  • 19N. VrasanaM
  • 22T. HaimovichM
  • 8I. MadmonM
  • 25A. IdokoM
  • 10V. DamaşcanF
  • 91C. TiéhiF
Substitutes
  • 70S. ZuberuD
  • 14O. AbuhavM
  • 7O. AlmagorF
  • 26I. CohenD
  • 11Y. DistalfeldM
  • 1B. Gordin AnbaryG
  • 18L. MizrachiD
  • 31Hamza MohammedM
  • 23Nati ShafrauM
Coach: L. Zada

Form going into Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Jerusalem

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Ligat Ha'al

  • W2-0away to Ironi Tiberias10 October 2026

Hapoel Jerusalem

Ligat Ha'al

  • L1-4Maccabi Haifa12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligat Ha'al table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Hapoel Beer Sheva107122213+922
10Hapoel Jerusalem102351623-79

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Jerusalem

  • 13 January 2026Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–1 Hapoel JerusalemState Cup
  • 31 December 2025Hapoel Beer Sheva 4–1 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
  • 14 September 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 1–5 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
  • 19 January 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 0–2 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
  • 6 October 2024Hapoel Beer Sheva 3–1 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
  • 20 January 2024Hapoel Jerusalem 0–1 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al

Leading scorers: Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Jerusalem

Hapoel Beer Sheva

GoalsAssists

  • I. Zlatanović50

Hapoel Jerusalem

GoalsAssists

  • N. Vrasana50
  • A. Idoko42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hapoel Beer Sheva beat Hapoel Jerusalem 2–1. The model had made a win for Hapoel Beer Sheva its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Vitalie Damașcan 35' for Hapoel Jerusalem, Igor Zlatanović 74' for Hapoel Beer Sheva, Igor Zlatanović (penalty) 84' for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Sent off: Ofek nadir (Hapoel Jerusalem) 82'. On expected goals it finished 2.46–0.74.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hapoel Beer Sheva a 76.8% chance to finish in the top four: 80.0% after a win, 70.3% after a draw, 69.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.0%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

For Hapoel Jerusalem the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three: 13.7% after a win, 25.0% after a draw, 26.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 26.6%.

Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hapoel Beer Sheva v Hapoel Jerusalem has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 53% / 25% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 64% / 21% / 15%: the biggest move is Hapoel Beer Sheva's chance of winning, up 11 points.

  1. Hapoel Beer Sheva win64%▲ +11
  2. Draw21%▼ −4
  3. Hapoel Jerusalem win15%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.