17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Brentford vs Liverpool Premier League prediction & result

Brentford Community Stadium, London
Referee: John Brooks, England
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Brentford 1-2 Liverpool.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Brentford, 26% draw, 36% Liverpool — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Brentford at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Brentford0%Draw3%Liverpool97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

31'
Bradley Barcola
32'
🔁Dominik Szoboszlaiout: Treymaurice Nyoni
41'
•Alexis Mac Allister
⚽Keane Lewis-Potterassist: Igor Thiago
44'
•Yehor Yarmoliuk
45+5'
Yehor Yarmoliuk
45+8'
45'
🔁Ronald Araujoout: Jeremie Frimpong
🔁Dango Ouattaraout: Kevin Schade
45'
🔁Mathias Jensenout: Mamadou Sangare
45'
Igor Thiago
46'
49'
Jérémy Jacquet
52'
🔁Jeremie Frimpongout: Rio Ngumoha
53'
Alexis Mac Allister
Kevin Schade
60'
62'
⚽Víctor Muñozassist: Florian Wirtz
Vitaly Janelt
63'
70'
⚽Alexander Isakassist: Bradley Barcola
🔁Sepp van den Bergout: Aaron Hickey
71'
🔁Keane Lewis-Potterout: El Hadji Malick Diouf
77'
🔁Jaidon Anthonyout: Mikkel Damsgaard
77'
79'
🔁Alexander Isakout: Lewis Koumas
79'
🔁Víctor Muñozout: Joe Gomez
Vitaly Janelt
90+2'

Match stats — Brentford vs Liverpool

40%Possession60%
10Shots21
2On target5
3Corners9
0.9xG1.54

Goals against chances

Brentford1 from 0.90 xGabout what the chances were worth
Liverpool2 from 1.54 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Brentford 4-2-3-1
  • 1C. KelleherG
  • 33M. KayodeD
  • 20K. AjerD
  • 4S. van den BergD
  • 23K. Lewis-PotterD
  • 6Y. YarmolyukM
  • 27V. JaneltM
  • 11D. OuattaraM
  • 8M. JensenM
  • 19J. AnthonyM
  • 9ThiagoF
Substitutes
  • 14Fábio CarvalhoM
  • 13C. WilsonF
  • 24M. DamsgaardM
  • 18M. SangaréM
  • 7K. SchadeM
  • 25E. DioufD
  • 22N. CollinsD
  • 2A. HickeyD
  • 12H. ValdimarssonG
Coach: Keith Andrews
Liverpool 4-2-3-1
  • 1Alisson BeckerG
  • 33R. AraújoD
  • 5J. JacquetD
  • 4V. van DijkD
  • 6M. KerkezD
  • 10A. Mac AllisterM
  • 8D. SzoboszlaiM
  • 23Víctor MuñozM
  • 7F. WirtzM
  • 29B. BarcolaM
  • 9A. IsakF
Substitutes
  • 67L. KoumasF
  • 73R. NgumohaF
  • 25G. MamardashviliG
  • 2J. GomezD
  • 30J. FrimpongD
  • 21K. TsimikasD
  • 3W. EndoM
  • 42T. NyoniM
  • 18C. GakpoF
Coach: Andoni Iraola

Form going into Brentford vs Liverpool

Brentford

Premier League

  • D2-2away to Aston Villa10 October 2026

Liverpool

Premier League

  • L0-3Manchester City11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Brentford103521611+514
4Liverpool105321410+418

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Brentford vs Liverpool

  • 24 May 2026Liverpool 1–1 BrentfordPremier League
  • 25 October 2025Brentford 3–2 LiverpoolPremier League
  • 18 January 2025Brentford 0–2 LiverpoolPremier League
  • 25 August 2024Liverpool 2–0 BrentfordPremier League
  • 17 February 2024Brentford 1–4 LiverpoolPremier League
  • 12 November 2023Liverpool 3–0 BrentfordPremier League

The full Brentford vs Liverpool record →

Leading scorers: Brentford and Liverpool

Brentford

GoalsAssists

  • K. Schade30

Liverpool

GoalsAssists

  • A. Isak70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Liverpool won 2–1 at Brentford. The model had leaned towards a win for Brentford at 38% and given a win for Liverpool 36%. The goals: Keane Lewis-Potter 44' for Brentford, Víctor Muñoz 62' for Liverpool, Alexander Isak 70' for Liverpool. Sent off: Yehor Yarmoliuk (Brentford) 45+8', Vitaly Janelt (Brentford) 90+2'. On expected goals it finished 0.90–1.54.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Brentford a 19.6% chance to finish in the top four: 23.7% after a win, 18.4% after a draw, 15.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.2%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.

For Liverpool the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 26.7% going in: 32.3% after a win, 25.1% after a draw, 22.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.3%, 5.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Brentford v Liverpool has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 38% / 26% / 36%: the biggest move is Brentford's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Brentford win38%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Liverpool win36%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.