17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Fulham vs Hull City Premier League prediction & result

Craven Cottage, London
Referee: Chris Kavanagh, England
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Fulham 1-0 Hull City.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Fulham, 30% draw, 37% Hull City — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hull City at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fulham96%Draw4%Hull City0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
Lucas Herrington
Josh King
27'
27'
Regan Slater
⚽Alex Iwobiassist: Sander Berge
33'
45'
🔁Lucas Herringtonout: Tim Iroegbunam
68'
🔁Matt Crooksout: Robinio Vaz
68'
🔁Sorba Thomasout: Joe Gelhardt
68'
🔁Brooke Norton-Cuffyout: Ryan Giles
75'
🔁Regan Slaterout: Hidemasa Morita
🔁Josh Kingout: Ryan Sessegnon
78'
🔁Oscar Bobbout: Tom Cairney
78'
Sander Berge
84'
🔁Gonzalo Garcíaout: Cesar Palacios Perez
85'
Ryan Sessegnon
90+4'

Match stats — Fulham vs Hull City

76%Possession24%
18Shots5
6On target0
10Corners2
1.48xG0.18

Goals against chances

Fulham1 from 1.48 xGabout what the chances were worth
Hull City0 from 0.18 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fulham 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. LenoG
  • 21T. CastagneD
  • 22D. AffengruberD
  • 3C. BasseyD
  • 33A. RobinsonD
  • 16S. BergeM
  • 19S. CharlesM
  • 14Oscar BobbM
  • 24Joshua KingM
  • 17A. IwobiM
  • 7Gonzalo GarcíaF
Substitutes
  • 9Rodrigo MunizF
  • 11KevinF
  • 20Manuel ÁngelM
  • 10T. CairneyM
  • 8César PalaciosM
  • 23B. LecomteG
  • 2K. TeteD
  • 5J. AndersenD
  • 30R. SessegnonM
Coach: Álvaro Arbeloa
Hull City 5-4-1
  • 19K. TzolakisG
  • 2L. CoyleD
  • 6S. AjayiD
  • 15J. EganD
  • 22L. HerringtonD
  • 18B. Norton-CuffyD
  • 10M. BelloumiM
  • 25M. CrooksM
  • 27R. SlaterM
  • 7S. ThomasM
  • 9O. McBurnieF
Substitutes
  • 5H. MoritaM
  • 17P. McNairD
  • 3R. GilesD
  • 47R. VazF
  • 12D. PhillipsG
  • 11J. GelhardtF
  • 14J. Hjertø-DahlM
  • 42T. IroegbunamM
  • 21E. StroudM
Coach: S. Jakirović

Form going into Fulham vs Hull City

Fulham

Premier League

  • L1-2away to Ipswich10 October 2026

Hull City

Premier League

  • D2-2Everton11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Fulham102441012-210
13Hull City102531111011

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fulham vs Hull City

  • 7 January 2023Hull City 0–2 FulhamFA Cup
  • 12 February 2022Hull City 0–1 FulhamChampionship
  • 21 August 2021Fulham 2–0 Hull CityChampionship
  • 11 January 2020Hull City 0–1 FulhamChampionship
  • 2 November 2019Fulham 0–3 Hull CityChampionship
  • 30 December 2017Hull City 2–2 FulhamChampionship

The full Fulham vs Hull City record →

Leading scorers: Fulham and Hull City

Fulham

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Hull City

GoalsAssists

  • M. Belloumi32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fulham beat Hull City 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Hull City at 37% and given a win for Fulham 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Alex Iwobi 33' for Fulham. Sent off: Ryan Sessegnon (Fulham) 90+4'. On expected goals it finished 1.48–0.18.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fulham a 48.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 40.9% after a win, 49.6% after a draw, 52.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.9%, 7.4 points lower than before the match.

For Hull City the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 4.6% going in: 2.3% after a win, 4.7% after a draw, 6.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.3%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.