Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers Championship prediction & result
Final score: Stenhousemuir 1-1 Raith Rovers.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Stenhousemuir, 28% draw, 24% Raith Rovers — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Stenhousemuir at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1D. Jamieson
- 24L. Grant
- 5S. Young
- 19S. Bright
- 2R. Meechan
- 17M. Anderson
- 8F. Robson
- 37O. MacIntyre
- 7E. O'Reilly
- 20G. Stevenson
- 10A. Shinnie
- 34R. Hemfrey
- 11L. O'Donnell
- 14K. Bilham
- 15D. Carrick
- 21L. Hodgkiss
- 28C. Penman
- 4G. Buchanan
- 36L. Lloyd
- 39M. Gillies
- 1J. Rae
- 2J. Rowe
- 6J. Baird
- 4P. Hanlon
- 3Z. Delaney
- 20S. Brown
- 8K. Turner
- 7A. Lyall
- 25K. Montagu
- 15S. Tiffoney
- 9G. Oakley
- 13L. Armstrong
- 5C. Fordyce
- 16L. Stevenson
- 18P. McMullan
- 22R. Millen
Form going into Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers
Stenhousemuir
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Inverness CT10 October 2026
Raith Rovers
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Queen's Park10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Morton3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Scotland Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 26 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers
- 1 August 2026Raith Rovers 1–1 StenhousemuirChampionship
- 6 April 2019Stenhousemuir 1–1 Raith RoversLeague One
- 5 January 2019Raith Rovers 5–1 StenhousemuirLeague One
- 17 November 2018Stenhousemuir 1–3 Raith RoversLeague One
- 11 August 2018Raith Rovers 2–0 StenhousemuirLeague One
The result against the call
Stenhousemuir and Raith Rovers drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Stenhousemuir at 48% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Anderson 20' for Stenhousemuir, J. Rowe 46' for Raith Rovers.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stenhousemuir a 40.3% chance to finish top of the regular season: 44.9% after a win, 36.7% after a draw, 32.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 36.7%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.
For Raith Rovers the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 65.4% going in: 73.4% after a win, 67.0% after a draw, 61.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 67.0%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.