17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Everton vs Chelsea Premier League prediction & result

Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
Referee: Paul Tierney, England
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Everton 0-2 Chelsea.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Everton, 25% draw, 36% Chelsea — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Everton at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Everton0%Draw5%Chelsea95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Harrison Armstrong
23'
27'
Pedro Neto
32'
Josh Acheampong
James Tarkowski
34'
34'
Morgan Rogers
46'
⚽Pedro Neto
🔁Ainsley Maitland-Nilesout: Tyrique George
55'
65'
Cole Palmer
75'
🔁Emiliano Martínezout: Mike Penders
🔁Harrison Armstrongout: Christian Nørgaard
85'
🔁Jack Grealishout: Brennan Johnson
85'
Christian Nørgaard
89'
90'
⚽Pedro Neto
90+2'
🔁João Pedroout: Danny Welbeck
90+2'
🔁Jorrel Hatoout: Marco Palestra
90+2'
🔁Moises Caicedoout: Romeo Lavia
90+12'
🔁Pedro Netoout: Geovany Quenda

Match stats — Everton vs Chelsea

47%Possession53%
6Shots18
5On target7
5Corners7
0.54xG1.59

Goals against chances

Everton0 from 0.54 xGless than the chances were worth
Chelsea2 from 1.59 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Everton 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. PickfordG
  • 2A. Maitland-NilesD
  • 6J. TarkowskiD
  • 4J. BranthwaiteD
  • 16V. MykolenkoD
  • 45H. ArmstrongM
  • 37J. GarnerM
  • 34M. RöhlM
  • 8K. Dewsbury-HallM
  • 10J. GrealishM
  • 11T. BarryF
Substitutes
  • 12M. TraversG
  • 15J. O'BrienD
  • 20T. DiblingF
  • 24C. AlcarazM
  • 23C. NørgaardM
  • 30H. HackneyM
  • 58B. GrahamF
  • 19Tyrique GeorgeF
  • 22B. JohnsonF
Coach: D. Moyes
Chelsea 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. MartínezG
  • 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
  • 5M. LacroixD
  • 6L. ColwillD
  • 21J. HatoD
  • 25M. CaicedoM
  • 14J. HendersonM
  • 7Pedro NetoM
  • 10C. PalmerM
  • 17M. RogersM
  • 9João PedroF
Substitutes
  • 39M. PendersG
  • 18D. WelbeckF
  • 4V. BarcoM
  • 45R. LaviaM
  • 32M. Nicoll-JazuliM
  • 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
  • 41EstêvãoF
  • 2M. PalestraD
  • 3W. FofanaD
Coach: Xabi Alonso

Form going into Everton vs Chelsea

Everton

Premier League

  • D2-2away to Hull City11 October 2026

Chelsea

Premier League

  • W5-1Bournemouth10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Everton104421210+216
5Chelsea105141916+316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Everton vs Chelsea

  • 21 March 2026Everton 3–0 ChelseaPremier League
  • 13 December 2025Chelsea 2–0 EvertonPremier League
  • 26 April 2025Chelsea 1–0 EvertonPremier League
  • 22 December 2024Everton 0–0 ChelseaPremier League
  • 15 April 2024Chelsea 6–0 EvertonPremier League
  • 10 December 2023Everton 2–0 ChelseaPremier League

The full Everton vs Chelsea record →

Leading scorers: Everton and Chelsea

Everton

GoalsAssists

  • T. Barry61
  • K. Dewsbury-Hall31

Chelsea

GoalsAssists

  • João Pedro53
  • M. Rogers51
  • Pedro Neto31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Chelsea won 2–0 at Everton. The model had leaned towards a win for Everton at 39% and given a win for Chelsea 36%. The goals: Pedro Neto 46' for Chelsea, Pedro Neto 90' for Chelsea. On expected goals it finished 0.54–1.59.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Everton a 6.5% chance to finish in the top four: 8.1% after a win, 5.5% after a draw, 4.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.6%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

For Chelsea the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 16.2% going in: 20.2% after a win, 15.2% after a draw, 12.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.2%, 4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Everton v Chelsea has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 39% / 25% / 36%: the biggest move is Chelsea's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Everton win39%▼ −1
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Chelsea win36%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.