17 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Newcastle vs Aston Villa Premier League prediction & result

St. James' Park, Newcastle
Referee: Jarred Gillett
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Newcastle 0-1 Aston Villa.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Newcastle, 24% draw, 43% Aston Villa — fair odds of 3.03, 4.17 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aston Villa at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Newcastle0%Draw5%Aston Villa95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Joelinton
18'
Sven Botman
18'
25'
João Gomes
28'
Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
36'
⚽Johan Manzambiassist: João Gomes
45'
🔁 Alysson Edward Franco da Rochaout: John McGinn
Nico González
53'
Yoane Wissa
55'
🔁Matias Fernandez-Pardoout: Bazoumana Touré
56'
🔁Joe Willockout: William Osula
56'
72'
🔁Emiliano Buendíaout: Leon Goretzka
72'
🔁João Gomesout: Ross Barkley
72'
🔁Johan Manzambiout: Ibrahim Mbaye
77'
🔁Aaron Wan-Bissakaout: Pau Torres
William Osula
78'
Malick Thiaw
86'
🔁Joelintonout: Dan Burn
90'

Match stats — Newcastle vs Aston Villa

49%Possession51%
16Shots15
1On target3
4Corners5
1.14xG1.56

Goals against chances

Newcastle0 from 1.14 xGless than the chances were worth
Aston Villa1 from 1.56 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Newcastle 4-2-3-1
  • 21L. HorníčekG
  • 67L. MileyD
  • 12M. ThiawD
  • 4S. BotmanD
  • 3L. HallD
  • 6Nico GonzálezM
  • 7JoelintonM
  • 20M. Fernandez-PardoM
  • 28J. WillockM
  • 11H. BarnesM
  • 9Y. WissaF
Substitutes
  • 14Sean SteurM
  • 17B. TouréF
  • 10W. OsulaF
  • 23J. MurphyM
  • 1N. PopeG
  • 5F. SchärD
  • 33D. BurnD
  • 37A. DedićD
  • 8A. BambaM
Coach: M. Jaissle
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
  • 1Z. SuzukiG
  • 2M. CashD
  • 3V. LindelöfD
  • 5T. MingsD
  • 29A. Wan-BissakaD
  • 8B. KamaraM
  • 35João GomesM
  • 47Alysson EdwardM
  • 44J. ManzambiM
  • 10E. BuendíaM
  • 11N. JacksonF
Substitutes
  • 4T. Harwood-BellisD
  • 14Pau TorresD
  • 7J. McGinnM
  • 6R. BarkleyM
  • 26L. BogardeM
  • 27L. GoretzkaM
  • 19I. MbayeF
  • 40M. BizotG
  • 39Brian MadjoF
Coach: Unai Emery

Form going into Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Newcastle

Premier League

  • L1-4away to Coventry12 October 2026

Aston Villa

Premier League

  • D2-2Brentford10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Newcastle103341316-312
10Aston Villa103431417-313

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Newcastle vs Aston Villa

  • 14 February 2026Aston Villa 1–3 NewcastleFA Cup
  • 25 January 2026Newcastle 0–2 Aston VillaPremier League
  • 16 August 2025Aston Villa 0–0 NewcastlePremier League
  • 19 April 2025Aston Villa 4–1 NewcastlePremier League
  • 26 December 2024Newcastle 3–0 Aston VillaPremier League
  • 30 January 2024Aston Villa 1–3 NewcastlePremier League

The full Newcastle vs Aston Villa record →

Leading scorers: Newcastle and Aston Villa

Newcastle

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Aston Villa

GoalsAssists

  • N. Jackson61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Aston Villa won 1–0 at Newcastle. The model had made a win for Aston Villa its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Johan Manzambi 36' for Aston Villa. On expected goals it finished 1.14–1.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Newcastle a 19.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 15.4% after a win, 19.6% after a draw, 22.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.5%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

For Aston Villa the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 10.9% going in: 12.8% after a win, 9.4% after a draw, 7.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.8%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Newcastle v Aston Villa has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 35% / 27% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 33% / 24% / 43%: the biggest move is Aston Villa's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Newcastle win33%▼ −2
  2. Draw24%▼ −3
  3. Aston Villa win43%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.