23 August 2026, 13:00 UTC

Manchester City vs Bournemouth Premier League prediction & result

Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Manchester City 2-1 Bournemouth.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Manchester City, 21% draw, 23% Bournemouth — fair odds of 1.79, 4.76 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Manchester City at 56% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Manchester City6%Draw90%Bournemouth4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
⚽M. Tavernierassist: Evanilson
45+1'
Evanilson
🔁R. Lewisout: M. Nunes
57'
🔁N. O'Reillyout: R. Cherki
63'
🔁E. Andersonout: M. Kovacic
63'
75'
🔁Evanilsonout: D. Jebbison
75'
🔁J. Kluivertout: A. Toth
75'
🔁L. Cookout: T. Adams
P. Foden
78'
🔁P. Fodenout: J. Grealish
82'
⚽M. Guehiassist: R. Cherki
84'
85'
A. Silva
89'
🔁Rayanout: B. Gannon-Doak
⚽J. Gvardiolassist: R. Cherki
90+1'

Match stats — Manchester City vs Bournemouth

66%Possession34%
13Shots5
6On target4
8Corners3
2.36xG0.63

Goals against chances

Manchester City2 from 2.36 xGabout what the chances were worth
Bournemouth1 from 0.63 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Manchester City 4-2-3-1
  • 1Gianluigi DonnarummaG
  • 82Rico LewisD
  • 45Abdukodir KhusanovD
  • 3Rúben DiasD
  • 24Joško GvardiolD
  • 5Elliot AndersonM
  • 6Marc GuéhiM
  • 47Phil FodenM
  • 33Nico O'ReillyM
  • 42Antoine SemenyoM
  • 9Erling HaalandF
Substitutes
  • 27Matheus NunesM
  • 8Mateo KovačićM
  • 10Rayan CherkiM
  • 18Jack GrealishM
  • 28Gerónimo RulliG
  • 21Rayan Aït-NouriD
  • 22Vitor ReisD
  • 14Nico GonzálezM
  • 7Omar MarmoushF
Coach: Enzo Maresca
Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
  • 1Đorđe PetrovićG
  • 15Adam SmithD
  • 5James HillD
  • 14António SilvaD
  • 3Adrien TruffertD
  • 4Lewis CookM
  • 8Alex ScottM
  • 37RayanM
  • 19Justin KluivertM
  • 16Marcus TavernierM
  • 9EvanilsonF
Substitutes
  • 27Alex TóthM
  • 12Tyler AdamsM
  • 29Daniel JebbisonF
  • 11Ben Gannon-DoakF
  • 40Will DennisG
  • 18Bafodé DiakitéD
  • 24Juanlu SánchezM
  • 7David BrooksM
  • 30Álvaro RodriguezF
Coach: Marco Rose

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Manchester City440082+612
15Bournemouth403167-13

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Manchester City vs Bournemouth

  • 23 August 2026Manchester City 2–1 BournemouthPremier League
  • 19 May 2026Bournemouth 1–1 Manchester CityPremier League
  • 2 November 2025Manchester City 3–1 BournemouthPremier League
  • 20 May 2025Manchester City 3–1 BournemouthPremier League
  • 30 March 2025Bournemouth 1–2 Manchester CityFA Cup
  • 2 November 2024Bournemouth 2–1 Manchester CityPremier League

Leading scorers: Manchester City and Bournemouth

Manchester City

  • E. Haaland4 goals
  • R. Cherki2 goals2 assists

Bournemouth

  • M. Tavernier3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.