30 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü 1. Lig prediction & result

Esenler Stadium, Istanbul
Referee: Omer Faruk Gultekin
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Esenler Erokspor 3-2 Keçiörengücü.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Esenler Erokspor, 28% draw, 32% Keçiörengücü — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Esenler Erokspor at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Esenler Erokspor96%Draw4%Keçiörengücü0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽Mame Biram Dioufassist: Moryke Fofana
Yusuf Erdoğan
21'
Luccas Claro
27'
37'
🔁Mame Biram Dioufout: Herculano·Nabian
🔁Furkan Orakout: Hayrullah Bilazer
45'
45'
🔁Tuncer Duhan Aksuout: Abdullah Celik
Nicolas Janvier
48'
⚽Mame Mor Fayeassist: Yusuf Erdoğan
51'
H. Karaman
51'
⚽Kubilay Kanatsızkuşassist: Hayrullah Bilazer
53'
57'
🔁Odise Roshiout: Alcídio Raice
⚽Bahadir Öztürk
64'
🔁Kubilay Kanatsızkuşout: Burak Coban
68'
73'
🔁Herculano·Nabianout: Francis Ezeh
73'
🔁Jeffersonout: Halil Can Ayan
🔁Recep Niyazout: Ferhat Yazgan
77'
78'
⚽I. Karaogulassist: E. Develi
81'
Wellington Ferreira Nascimento
86'
Francis Ezeh
🔁Yusuf Erdoğanout: Altin Zeqiri
86'
🔁Nicolas Janvierout: Tugay Kaçar
86'
Bahadir Öztürk
90'
90'
Alcídio Raice

Match stats — Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü

55%Possession45%
23Shots8
7On target4
7Corners2
3.36xG1.65

Goals against chances

Esenler Erokspor3 from 3.36 xGabout what the chances were worth
Keçiörengücü2 from 1.65 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Esenler Erokspor 4-2-3-1
  • 22E. CanpolatG
  • 70F. OrakD
  • 21B. ÖztürkD
  • 4Luccas ClaroD
  • 33E. AlićD
  • 5M. OkyarM
  • 7N. JanvierM
  • 53Y. ErdoğanM
  • 10R. NiyazM
  • 11M. FayeM
  • 9K. KanatsızkuşF
Substitutes
  • 77H. BilazerD
  • 99P. GuèyeF
  • 6T. KaçarM
  • 39E. KaşD
  • 18B. SamudioF
  • 27F. YazganM
  • 88A. ZeqiriM
  • 34E. ÇetinG
  • 17B. ÇobanF
Coach: H. Karaman
Keçiörengücü 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. ErdoğanG
  • 12M. KeskinD
  • 3Wellington NascimentoD
  • 5O. ÇalışkanD
  • 37D. AksuD
  • 6E. DeveliM
  • 8I. KaraogulM
  • 7O. RoshiM
  • 10JeffersonM
  • 77M. FofanaM
  • 55M. DioufF
Substitutes
  • 4A. ÇelikD
  • 19Enes YilmazM
  • 18E. SatılmışG
  • 20Alcídio RaiceM
  • 33S. LuşD
  • 21F. EzehF
  • 9Ö. DemirelF
  • 45Herculano NabianF
  • 16Oğuzhan AyaydınM
Coach: O. Korkmaz

Form going into Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü

Esenler Erokspor

1. Lig

  • L2-3away to Batman Petrolspor25 October 2026
  • W4-2Mardin 196919 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Manisa F.K.15 October 2026

Keçiörengücü

1. Lig

  • L2-4Bursaspor25 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Fatih Karagümrük19 October 2026
  • D0-0Iğdır FK14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Esenler Erokspor144642018+218
6Keçiörengücü146532618+823

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü

  • 19 April 2026Esenler Erokspor 1–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
  • 14 December 2025Keçiörengücü 1–1 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig
  • 5 March 2025Keçiörengücü 2–2 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig
  • 21 October 2024Esenler Erokspor 2–2 Keçiörengücü1. Lig

Leading scorers: Esenler Erokspor and Keçiörengücü

Esenler Erokspor

GoalsAssists

  • G. Kanga51

Keçiörengücü

GoalsAssists

  • M. Diouf82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Esenler Erokspor beat Keçiörengücü 3–2. The model had made a win for Esenler Erokspor its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mame Biram Diouf 15' for Keçiörengücü, Mame Mor Faye 51' for Esenler Erokspor, Kubilay Kanatsızkuş 53' for Esenler Erokspor, Bahadir Öztürk 64' for Esenler Erokspor, I. Karaogul 78' for Keçiörengücü. On expected goals it finished 3.36–1.65.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Esenler Erokspor a 6.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 4.6% after a win, 6.8% after a draw, 8.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.6%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.

For Keçiörengücü the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 7.3% going in: 9.7% after a win, 6.6% after a draw, 5.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.3%, 2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Esenler Erokspor v Keçiörengücü has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 37% / 30% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Esenler Erokspor's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Esenler Erokspor win40%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Keçiörengücü win32%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.